demo/chp.11.2.R

In IQSS/YourCast: Forecasting Age-Sex-Country-Cause Mortality Rates

chapter11.2 <- function()
{
    message("Figure 11.2 in 'Demographic Forecasting'...")
    message("Respiratory infections, Bulgaria...")

    cat("\n")
    cat("Loading data...\n")
    data(chp.11.2)
    cat("> data(chp.11.2)\n")
   
    cat("\n")
    message("Formula for male respiratory infections...")
    ff <- log(rspi2/popu2) ~ time 
    cat("> ff <- log(rspi2/popu2) ~ time\n")
    message("Running yourcast with model LC...")
    user.prompt()
    
    cat("\n")
    cat("> ylc <- yourcast(formula=ff, dataobj=chp.11.2, model=\"LC\")\n")
    ylc <- yourcast(formula=ff, dataobj=chp.11.2, model="LC")
    
    message("Generating the graphics for LC...")
    user.prompt()
    
    cat("\n")
    cat("> plot(ylc, title=\"Respiratory Infections\",age.opts=list(insamp.predict=FALSE))\n")
    plot(ylc, title="Respiratory Infections",age.opts=list(insamp.predict=FALSE))
   
    message("Now running yourcast with MAP model...")
    user.prompt()
    
    cat("Setting means for priors...\n")
    cat("> zmean <- c(-7.474950, -10.391050, -10.745170, -10.511022, -10.450573, -10.321841, -10.066730, -9.721626,  -9.362865,  -8.995520,  -8.607914,  -8.233437,  -7.752187,  -7.240793, -6.626354,  -6.019082,  -4.938154)\n")
    zmean <- c(-7.474950, -10.391050, -10.745170, -10.511022, -10.450573, -10.321841, -10.066730, -9.721626,  -9.362865,  -8.995520,  -8.607914,  -8.233437,  -7.752187,  -7.240793, 
               -6.626354,  -6.019082,  -4.938154)
    names(zmean) <- 0:16*5
    
    cat("\n")
    cat("> ymap <- yourcast(model=\"map\", Ha.sigma=0.2, Ht.sigma=NA,Hat.sigma=NA, zero.mean=zmean)\n")
    ymap <- yourcast(model="map", Ha.sigma=0.2, Ht.sigma=NA,Hat.sigma=NA, zero.mean=zmean)
    
    cat("\n")
    message("Generating the graphics for MAP...")
    user.prompt()
    
    cat("> plot(ymap, title=\"Respiratory Infections\",age.opts=list(insamp.predict=FALSE))\n")
    plot(ymap, title="Respiratory Infections",age.opts=list(insamp.predict=FALSE))
    
  }

chapter11.2()