R/acd-forecast.R
In TrungLeVn/SgtAcd: Autoregressive Density Model with Skewed Generalized Student-t distribution
Defines functions
.acdforecast2
.acdforecast
.acdforecastSpec
.acdforecastFit
acdforecast
Documented in
acdforecast
#--------------------
# ACDforecast method
#' @export acdforecast
#' @title Autoregressive Conditional Density model forecast
#' @description Produce forecast for ACD models, basing on the simulation
#' @param fitORspec Either ACDfit or ACDspec object is allowed
#--------------------
# forecast
acdforecast = function(fitORspec, data = NULL, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0, out.sample = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL,
skew0 = NULL, shape10 = NULL,skew20 = NULL, ...)
{
UseMethod("acdforecast")
}
.acdforecastFit = function(fitORspec, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL, ...)
{
fit = fitORspec
ans = .acdforecast(fit = fit, n.ahead = n.ahead,
n.roll = n.roll,
m.sim = m.sim,
cluster = cluster, ...)
return(ans)
}
# switch if we supply model specification to the acdforecast function
.acdforecastSpec = function(fitORspec, data = NULL, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0, out.sample = 0,
m.sim = 1000,
cluster = NULL, skew0 = NULL, shape0 = NULL, ...)
{
spec = fitORspec
ans = .acdforecast2(spec = spec, data = data, n.ahead = n.ahead,
n.roll = n.roll, out.sample = out.sample,
m.sim = m.sim,
cluster = cluster, skew0 = skew0, shape10 = shape10,shape20 = shape20, ...)
return(ans)
}
setMethod("acdforecast", signature(fitORspec = "ACDfit"), .acdforecastFit)
setMethod("acdforecast", signature(fitORspec = "ACDspec"), .acdforecastSpec)
#------------------
#---------------------------
.acdforecast = function(fit, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL, rseed = NA, ...)
{
if(is.na(rseed[1])){
sseed = 2706:(2706+m.sim-1)
} else{
if(length(rseed) != m.sim) stop("\uacdforecast-->error: rseed must be of length m.sim!\n")
sseed = rseed[1:m.sim]
}
data = fit@model$modeldata$data
Nor = length(fit@model$modeldata$data)
index = fit@model$modeldata$index
period = fit@model$modeldata$period
ns = fit@model$n.start ##ns is the number of periods before the end of dataset that is used to fit the model
if(n.roll>0 && ns ==0) stop("\uacdforecast-->error: Rolling forecast is only available when we have out-of-sample data!\n")
N = Nor - ns #N is the length of data that is used to fit model or data[N] is the last point of fitted data
model = fit@model
ipars = fit@fit$ipars
modelinc = model$modelinc
idx = model$pidx
if( n.roll > ns ) stop("\nacdforecast-->error: n.roll must not be greater than out.sample!")
pars = fit@fit$coef
ipars = fit@fit$ipars
# filter data (check external regressor data - must equal length of origData)
# Generate the 1 extra ahead forecast using filter process with the last residuals and z as based values
if(n.roll > 0){ # if we have out-of-sample in the fit object and we wish to rolling forecast
fcreq = ifelse(ns >= (n.ahead+n.roll+1), n.ahead+n.roll + 1, ns)
tmp = xts::xts(data[1:(N + fcreq)], index[1:(N + fcreq)])
fspec = acdspec(variance.model = list(model = model$vmodel$model,
garchOrder = model$vmodel$garchOrder,
variance.targeting = FALSE),
mean.model = list(armaOrder = model$mmodel$armaOrder,
include.mean = model$mmodel$include.mean,
archm = model$mmodel$archm, skm = model$mmodel$skm, pskm = model$mmodel$pskm, adjm = model$mmodel$adjm),
distribution.model = list(model = model$dmodel$model,
skewOrder = model$dmodel$skewOrder, skewshock = model$dmodel$skewshock,
skewmodel = model$dmodel$skewmodel, volsk = model$dmodel$volsk,
shape1Order = model$dmodel$shape1Order, shape1shock = model$dmodel$shape1shock,
shape1model = model$dmodel$shape1model, volsh1 = model$dmodel$volsh1,
shape2Order = model$dmodel$shape2Order, shape2shock = model$dmodel$shape2shock,
shape2model = model$dmodel$shape2model, volsh2 = model$dmodel$volsh2,
exp.rate=model$sbounds[7]))
fspec = setfixedacd(fspec, as.list(coefacd(fit)))
fspec = setboundsacd(fspec,list(shape1 = fit@model$sbounds[3:4],shape2 = fit@model$sbounds[5:6], skew = fit@model$sbounds[1:2]))
flt = acdfilter(spec = fspec, data = tmp, n.old = N, skew0 = fit@fit$tskew[1], shape0 = fit@fit$tshape[1])
sigmafilter = flt@filter$sigma
resfilter = flt@filter$residuals
zfilter = flt@filter$z
tskewfilter = flt@filter$tskew
tshape1filter = flt@filter$tshape1
tshape2filter =flt@filter$tshape2
tempskewfilter = flt@filter$tempskew
tempshape1filter = flt@filter$tempshape1
tempshape2filter = flt@filter$tempshape2
pskewnessfilter = flt@filter$Pskewness
seriesfor = sigmafor = matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
tskewfor = tshape1for = tshape2for = pskewnessfor= matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
seriesfor[1,] = fittedAcd(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
sigmafor[1,] = sigmaAcd(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tskewfor[1,] = skew(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tshape1for[1,] = shape1(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tshape2for[1,] = shape2(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
pskewnessfor[1,] = Pskewness(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
# n.roll x n.ahead (n.ahead=1 generted by model)
# n.ahead>1 by simulation
colnames(seriesfor) = colnames(sigmafor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
colnames(tskewfor) = colnames(tshape1for) = colnames(tshape2for) = colnames(pskewnessfor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
rownames(seriesfor) = rownames(sigmafor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
rownames(tskewfor) = rownames(tshape2for) = rownames(tshape2for) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
mx = model$maxOrder #At the moment, the package only allows for maximum lag of 1 in both mean, sigma and higher moment equations.
# Hence mx is always 1
#constmean = unname(coefacd(fit)["mu"])
for(i in 1:(n.roll+1)){
if(n.ahead>1){
spec = fspec
presig = tail(sigmafilter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
preskew = tail(tskewfilter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
preshape1 = tail(tshape1filter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
preshape2 = tail(tshape2filter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
prereturns = tail(data[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
prePskewness = tail(pskewnessfilter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
for(j in 2:n.ahead){
sim = acdpath(spec, n.sim = 1, n.start = 0, m.sim = m.sim,
presigma = presig, preskew = preskew,
preshape1 = preshape1,preshape2 = preshape2, prereturns = prereturns,
preresiduals = NA, rseed = rseed,
cluster = cluster)
seriesfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$seriesSim, 1, "mean")
sigmafor[j, i] = sqrt(apply(sim@path$sigmaSim^2, 1, "mean"))
tskewfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$skewSim, 1, "mean")
tshape1for[j, i] = apply(sim@path$shape1Sim, 1, "mean")
tshape2for[j, i] = apply(sim@path$shape2Sim, 1, "mean")
pskewnessfor[j,i] = apply(sim@path$pskewSim,1,"mean")
# update the previous values:
prereturns[mx] = seriesfor[j, i]
presig[mx] = sigmafor[j, i]
preskew[mx] = tskewfor[j, i]
preshape1[mx] = tshape1for[j, i]
preshape2[mx] = tshape2for[j, i]
prePskewness[mx] = pskewnessfor[j,i]
}
}
}
} else{
seriesfor = sigmafor = matrix(NA, ncol = 1, nrow = n.ahead)
tskewfor = tshape1for = tshape2for = tempskewfor = pskewnessfor= matrix(NA, ncol = 1, nrow = n.ahead)
colnames(seriesfor) = colnames(sigmafor) = as.character(index[N])
colnames(tskewfor) = colnames(tshape1for) = colnames(tshape2for) = colnames(pskewnessfor) = as.character(index[N])
rownames(seriesfor) = rownames(sigmafor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
rownames(tskewfor) = rownames(tshape2for) = rownames(tshape2for) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
mx = model$maxOrder
presig = as.numeric(tail(sigmaAcd(fit),mx))
preskew = as.numeric(tail(skew(fit),mx))
preshape1 = as.numeric(tail(shape1(fit),mx))
preshape2 = as.numeric(tail(shape2(fit),mx))
preresiduals = as.numeric(tail(residualsAcd(fit),mx))
prereturns = as.numeric(tail(fit@model$modeldata$data[N],mx))
prePskewness = as.numeric(tail(Pskewness(fit),mx))
sim = acdsim(fit, n.sim = n.ahead, m.sim = m.sim,
presigma = presig, preskew = preskew,
preshape1 = preshape1,preshape2 = preshape2, prereturns = prereturns,
preresiduals = preresiduals, rseed = rseed,
cluster = cluster)
for(j in 1 : n.ahead){
seriesfor[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$seriesSim[j,])
sigmafor[j,1] = sqrt(mean(sim@simulation$sigmaSim[j,]^2))
tskewfor[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$skewSim[j,])
tshape1for[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$shape1Sim[j,])
tshape2for[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$shape2Sim[j,])
pskewnessfor[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$pskewSim[j,])
}
}
fcst = list()
fcst$n.ahead = n.ahead
fcst$n.roll = n.roll
fcst$N = N+ns
fcst$n.start = ns
fcst$seriesFor = seriesfor
fcst$sigmaFor = sigmafor
fcst$tskewFor = tskewfor
fcst$tshape1For = tshape1for
fcst$tshape2For = tshape2for
fcst$pskewnessfor = pskewnessfor
if(n.roll>0){
model$modeldata$sigma = flt@filter$sigma
model$modeldata$residuals = flt@filter$residuals
model$modeldata$tskew = flt@filter$tskew
model$modeldata$tshape1 = flt@filter$tshape1
model$modeldata$tshape2 = flt@filter$tshape2
model$modeldata$Pskewness = flt@filter$Pskewness
} else{
model = fit@model
}
ans = new("ACDforecast",
forecast = fcst,
model = model)
return(ans)
}
# CONTINUE HERE:
.acdforecast2 = function(spec, data = NULL, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0, out.sample = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL, skew0 = NULL,
shape0 = NULL, ...)
{
vmodel = spec@model$vmodel$model
xdata = rugarch:::.extractdata(data)
data = xdata$data
index = xdata$index
period = xdata$period
Nor = length(as.numeric(data))
ns = out.sample
N = Nor - ns
model = spec@model
modelinc = model$modelinc
idx = model$pidx
ipars = model$pars
pars = unlist(model$fixed.pars)
parnames = names(pars)
modelnames = rugarch:::.checkallfixed(spec)
if(is.na(all(match(modelnames, parnames), 1:length(modelnames)))) {
cat("\nacdfilter-->error: parameters names do not match specification\n")
cat("Expected Parameters are: ")
cat(paste(modelnames))
cat("\n")
stop("Exiting", call. = FALSE)
}
fspec = spec
setfixed(fspec)<-as.list(pars)
if( n.roll > ns ) stop("\nacdforecast-->error: n.roll must not be greater than out.sample!")
# filter data (check external regressor data - must equal length of origData)
fcreq = ifelse(ns >= (n.ahead+n.roll), n.ahead+n.roll, ns)
# Generate the 1 extra ahead forecast
if((n.ahead+n.roll)<=ns){
tmp = xts(data[1:(N + fcreq)], index[1:(N + fcreq)])
} else{
tmp = xts(c(data[1:(N + fcreq)],0), c(index[1:(N + fcreq)], index[(N + fcreq)]+1))
}
flt = acdfilter(spec = fspec, data = tmp, n.old = N, skew0 = skew0, shape0 = shape0)
sigmafilter = flt@filter$sigma
resfilter = flt@filter$residuals
zfilter = flt@filter$z
tskewfilter = flt@filter$tskew
tshapefilter = flt@filter$tshape
tempskewfilter = flt@filter$tempskew
tempshapefilter = flt@filter$tempshape
seriesfor = sigmafor = matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
tskewfor = tshapefor = tempshafor = tempskewfor = matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
seriesfor[1,] = fitted(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
sigmafor[1,] = sigma(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tskewfor[1,] = skew(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tshapefor[1,] = shape(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
# n.roll x n.ahead (n.ahead=1 generted by model)
# n.ahead>1 by simulation
colnames(seriesfor) = colnames(sigmafor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
colnames(tskewfor) = colnames(tshapefor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
rownames(seriesfor) = rownames(sigmafor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
rownames(tskewfor) = rownames(tshapefor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
mx = model$maxOrder
for(i in 1:(n.roll+1)){
if(n.ahead>1){
spec = fspec
presig = tail(sigmafilter[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
preskew = tail(tskewfilter[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
preshape = tail(tshapefilter[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
prereturns = tail(data[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
for(j in 2:n.ahead){
sim = acdpath(fspec, n.sim = 1, n.start = 0, m.sim = m.sim,
presigma = presig, preskew = preskew,
preshape = preshape, prereturns = prereturns,
preresiduals = NA, rseed = NA,
mexsimdata = mxsim, vexsimdata = vxsim,
skxsimdata = skxsim, shxsimdata = shxsim,
cluster = cluster)
seriesfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$seriesSim, 1, "mean")
sigmafor[j, i] = sqrt(apply(sim@path$sigmaSim^2, 1, "mean"))
tskewfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$skewSim, 1, "mean")
tshapefor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$shapeSim, 1, "mean")
# update the previous values:
prereturns[mx] = seriesfor[j, i]
presig[mx] = sigmafor[j, i]
preskew[mx] = tskewfor[j, i]
preshape[mx] = tshapefor[j, i]
}
}
}
fcst = list()
fcst$n.ahead = n.ahead
fcst$n.roll = n.roll
fcst$N = N+ns
fcst$n.start = ns
fcst$seriesFor = seriesfor
fcst$sigmaFor = sigmafor
fcst$tskewFor = tskewfor
fcst$tshapeFor = tshapefor
model$modeldata$sigma = flt@filter$sigma
model$modeldata$residuals = flt@filter$residuals
model$modeldata$tskew = flt@filter$tskew
model$modeldata$tshape = flt@filter$tshape
ans = new("ACDforecast",
forecast = fcst,
model = model)
return(ans)
}
TrungLeVn/SgtAcd documentation built on July 25, 2021, 4:49 a.m.
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Defines functions .acdforecast2 .acdforecast .acdforecastSpec .acdforecastFit acdforecast
Documented in acdforecast
#--------------------
# ACDforecast method
#' @export acdforecast
#' @title Autoregressive Conditional Density model forecast
#' @description Produce forecast for ACD models, basing on the simulation
#' @param fitORspec Either ACDfit or ACDspec object is allowed
#--------------------
# forecast
acdforecast = function(fitORspec, data = NULL, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0, out.sample = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL,
skew0 = NULL, shape10 = NULL,skew20 = NULL, ...)
{
UseMethod("acdforecast")
}
.acdforecastFit = function(fitORspec, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL, ...)
{
fit = fitORspec
ans = .acdforecast(fit = fit, n.ahead = n.ahead,
n.roll = n.roll,
m.sim = m.sim,
cluster = cluster, ...)
return(ans)
}
# switch if we supply model specification to the acdforecast function
.acdforecastSpec = function(fitORspec, data = NULL, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0, out.sample = 0,
m.sim = 1000,
cluster = NULL, skew0 = NULL, shape0 = NULL, ...)
{
spec = fitORspec
ans = .acdforecast2(spec = spec, data = data, n.ahead = n.ahead,
n.roll = n.roll, out.sample = out.sample,
m.sim = m.sim,
cluster = cluster, skew0 = skew0, shape10 = shape10,shape20 = shape20, ...)
return(ans)
}
setMethod("acdforecast", signature(fitORspec = "ACDfit"), .acdforecastFit)
setMethod("acdforecast", signature(fitORspec = "ACDspec"), .acdforecastSpec)
#------------------
#---------------------------
.acdforecast = function(fit, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL, rseed = NA, ...)
{
if(is.na(rseed[1])){
sseed = 2706:(2706+m.sim-1)
} else{
if(length(rseed) != m.sim) stop("\uacdforecast-->error: rseed must be of length m.sim!\n")
sseed = rseed[1:m.sim]
}
data = fit@model$modeldata$data
Nor = length(fit@model$modeldata$data)
index = fit@model$modeldata$index
period = fit@model$modeldata$period
ns = fit@model$n.start ##ns is the number of periods before the end of dataset that is used to fit the model
if(n.roll>0 && ns ==0) stop("\uacdforecast-->error: Rolling forecast is only available when we have out-of-sample data!\n")
N = Nor - ns #N is the length of data that is used to fit model or data[N] is the last point of fitted data
model = fit@model
ipars = fit@fit$ipars
modelinc = model$modelinc
idx = model$pidx
if( n.roll > ns ) stop("\nacdforecast-->error: n.roll must not be greater than out.sample!")
pars = fit@fit$coef
ipars = fit@fit$ipars
# filter data (check external regressor data - must equal length of origData)
# Generate the 1 extra ahead forecast using filter process with the last residuals and z as based values
if(n.roll > 0){ # if we have out-of-sample in the fit object and we wish to rolling forecast
fcreq = ifelse(ns >= (n.ahead+n.roll+1), n.ahead+n.roll + 1, ns)
tmp = xts::xts(data[1:(N + fcreq)], index[1:(N + fcreq)])
fspec = acdspec(variance.model = list(model = model$vmodel$model,
garchOrder = model$vmodel$garchOrder,
variance.targeting = FALSE),
mean.model = list(armaOrder = model$mmodel$armaOrder,
include.mean = model$mmodel$include.mean,
archm = model$mmodel$archm, skm = model$mmodel$skm, pskm = model$mmodel$pskm, adjm = model$mmodel$adjm),
distribution.model = list(model = model$dmodel$model,
skewOrder = model$dmodel$skewOrder, skewshock = model$dmodel$skewshock,
skewmodel = model$dmodel$skewmodel, volsk = model$dmodel$volsk,
shape1Order = model$dmodel$shape1Order, shape1shock = model$dmodel$shape1shock,
shape1model = model$dmodel$shape1model, volsh1 = model$dmodel$volsh1,
shape2Order = model$dmodel$shape2Order, shape2shock = model$dmodel$shape2shock,
shape2model = model$dmodel$shape2model, volsh2 = model$dmodel$volsh2,
exp.rate=model$sbounds[7]))
fspec = setfixedacd(fspec, as.list(coefacd(fit)))
fspec = setboundsacd(fspec,list(shape1 = fit@model$sbounds[3:4],shape2 = fit@model$sbounds[5:6], skew = fit@model$sbounds[1:2]))
flt = acdfilter(spec = fspec, data = tmp, n.old = N, skew0 = fit@fit$tskew[1], shape0 = fit@fit$tshape[1])
sigmafilter = flt@filter$sigma
resfilter = flt@filter$residuals
zfilter = flt@filter$z
tskewfilter = flt@filter$tskew
tshape1filter = flt@filter$tshape1
tshape2filter =flt@filter$tshape2
tempskewfilter = flt@filter$tempskew
tempshape1filter = flt@filter$tempshape1
tempshape2filter = flt@filter$tempshape2
pskewnessfilter = flt@filter$Pskewness
seriesfor = sigmafor = matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
tskewfor = tshape1for = tshape2for = pskewnessfor= matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
seriesfor[1,] = fittedAcd(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
sigmafor[1,] = sigmaAcd(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tskewfor[1,] = skew(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tshape1for[1,] = shape1(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tshape2for[1,] = shape2(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
pskewnessfor[1,] = Pskewness(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
# n.roll x n.ahead (n.ahead=1 generted by model)
# n.ahead>1 by simulation
colnames(seriesfor) = colnames(sigmafor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
colnames(tskewfor) = colnames(tshape1for) = colnames(tshape2for) = colnames(pskewnessfor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
rownames(seriesfor) = rownames(sigmafor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
rownames(tskewfor) = rownames(tshape2for) = rownames(tshape2for) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
mx = model$maxOrder #At the moment, the package only allows for maximum lag of 1 in both mean, sigma and higher moment equations.
# Hence mx is always 1
#constmean = unname(coefacd(fit)["mu"])
for(i in 1:(n.roll+1)){
if(n.ahead>1){
spec = fspec
presig = tail(sigmafilter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
preskew = tail(tskewfilter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
preshape1 = tail(tshape1filter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
preshape2 = tail(tshape2filter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
prereturns = tail(data[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
prePskewness = tail(pskewnessfilter[1:(N+i-1)], mx)
for(j in 2:n.ahead){
sim = acdpath(spec, n.sim = 1, n.start = 0, m.sim = m.sim,
presigma = presig, preskew = preskew,
preshape1 = preshape1,preshape2 = preshape2, prereturns = prereturns,
preresiduals = NA, rseed = rseed,
cluster = cluster)
seriesfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$seriesSim, 1, "mean")
sigmafor[j, i] = sqrt(apply(sim@path$sigmaSim^2, 1, "mean"))
tskewfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$skewSim, 1, "mean")
tshape1for[j, i] = apply(sim@path$shape1Sim, 1, "mean")
tshape2for[j, i] = apply(sim@path$shape2Sim, 1, "mean")
pskewnessfor[j,i] = apply(sim@path$pskewSim,1,"mean")
# update the previous values:
prereturns[mx] = seriesfor[j, i]
presig[mx] = sigmafor[j, i]
preskew[mx] = tskewfor[j, i]
preshape1[mx] = tshape1for[j, i]
preshape2[mx] = tshape2for[j, i]
prePskewness[mx] = pskewnessfor[j,i]
}
}
}
} else{
seriesfor = sigmafor = matrix(NA, ncol = 1, nrow = n.ahead)
tskewfor = tshape1for = tshape2for = tempskewfor = pskewnessfor= matrix(NA, ncol = 1, nrow = n.ahead)
colnames(seriesfor) = colnames(sigmafor) = as.character(index[N])
colnames(tskewfor) = colnames(tshape1for) = colnames(tshape2for) = colnames(pskewnessfor) = as.character(index[N])
rownames(seriesfor) = rownames(sigmafor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
rownames(tskewfor) = rownames(tshape2for) = rownames(tshape2for) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
mx = model$maxOrder
presig = as.numeric(tail(sigmaAcd(fit),mx))
preskew = as.numeric(tail(skew(fit),mx))
preshape1 = as.numeric(tail(shape1(fit),mx))
preshape2 = as.numeric(tail(shape2(fit),mx))
preresiduals = as.numeric(tail(residualsAcd(fit),mx))
prereturns = as.numeric(tail(fit@model$modeldata$data[N],mx))
prePskewness = as.numeric(tail(Pskewness(fit),mx))
sim = acdsim(fit, n.sim = n.ahead, m.sim = m.sim,
presigma = presig, preskew = preskew,
preshape1 = preshape1,preshape2 = preshape2, prereturns = prereturns,
preresiduals = preresiduals, rseed = rseed,
cluster = cluster)
for(j in 1 : n.ahead){
seriesfor[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$seriesSim[j,])
sigmafor[j,1] = sqrt(mean(sim@simulation$sigmaSim[j,]^2))
tskewfor[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$skewSim[j,])
tshape1for[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$shape1Sim[j,])
tshape2for[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$shape2Sim[j,])
pskewnessfor[j,1] = mean(sim@simulation$pskewSim[j,])
}
}
fcst = list()
fcst$n.ahead = n.ahead
fcst$n.roll = n.roll
fcst$N = N+ns
fcst$n.start = ns
fcst$seriesFor = seriesfor
fcst$sigmaFor = sigmafor
fcst$tskewFor = tskewfor
fcst$tshape1For = tshape1for
fcst$tshape2For = tshape2for
fcst$pskewnessfor = pskewnessfor
if(n.roll>0){
model$modeldata$sigma = flt@filter$sigma
model$modeldata$residuals = flt@filter$residuals
model$modeldata$tskew = flt@filter$tskew
model$modeldata$tshape1 = flt@filter$tshape1
model$modeldata$tshape2 = flt@filter$tshape2
model$modeldata$Pskewness = flt@filter$Pskewness
} else{
model = fit@model
}
ans = new("ACDforecast",
forecast = fcst,
model = model)
return(ans)
}
# CONTINUE HERE:
.acdforecast2 = function(spec, data = NULL, n.ahead = 10, n.roll = 0, out.sample = 0,
m.sim = 1000, cluster = NULL, skew0 = NULL,
shape0 = NULL, ...)
{
vmodel = spec@model$vmodel$model
xdata = rugarch:::.extractdata(data)
data = xdata$data
index = xdata$index
period = xdata$period
Nor = length(as.numeric(data))
ns = out.sample
N = Nor - ns
model = spec@model
modelinc = model$modelinc
idx = model$pidx
ipars = model$pars
pars = unlist(model$fixed.pars)
parnames = names(pars)
modelnames = rugarch:::.checkallfixed(spec)
if(is.na(all(match(modelnames, parnames), 1:length(modelnames)))) {
cat("\nacdfilter-->error: parameters names do not match specification\n")
cat("Expected Parameters are: ")
cat(paste(modelnames))
cat("\n")
stop("Exiting", call. = FALSE)
}
fspec = spec
setfixed(fspec)<-as.list(pars)
if( n.roll > ns ) stop("\nacdforecast-->error: n.roll must not be greater than out.sample!")
# filter data (check external regressor data - must equal length of origData)
fcreq = ifelse(ns >= (n.ahead+n.roll), n.ahead+n.roll, ns)
# Generate the 1 extra ahead forecast
if((n.ahead+n.roll)<=ns){
tmp = xts(data[1:(N + fcreq)], index[1:(N + fcreq)])
} else{
tmp = xts(c(data[1:(N + fcreq)],0), c(index[1:(N + fcreq)], index[(N + fcreq)]+1))
}
flt = acdfilter(spec = fspec, data = tmp, n.old = N, skew0 = skew0, shape0 = shape0)
sigmafilter = flt@filter$sigma
resfilter = flt@filter$residuals
zfilter = flt@filter$z
tskewfilter = flt@filter$tskew
tshapefilter = flt@filter$tshape
tempskewfilter = flt@filter$tempskew
tempshapefilter = flt@filter$tempshape
seriesfor = sigmafor = matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
tskewfor = tshapefor = tempshafor = tempskewfor = matrix(NA, ncol = n.roll+1, nrow = n.ahead)
seriesfor[1,] = fitted(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
sigmafor[1,] = sigma(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tskewfor[1,] = skew(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
tshapefor[1,] = shape(flt)[(N+1):(N+n.roll+1)]
# n.roll x n.ahead (n.ahead=1 generted by model)
# n.ahead>1 by simulation
colnames(seriesfor) = colnames(sigmafor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
colnames(tskewfor) = colnames(tshapefor) = as.character(index[N:(N+n.roll)])
rownames(seriesfor) = rownames(sigmafor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
rownames(tskewfor) = rownames(tshapefor) = paste("T+", 1:n.ahead, sep="")
mx = model$maxOrder
for(i in 1:(n.roll+1)){
if(n.ahead>1){
spec = fspec
presig = tail(sigmafilter[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
preskew = tail(tskewfilter[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
preshape = tail(tshapefilter[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
prereturns = tail(data[1:(N+1+i-1)], mx)
for(j in 2:n.ahead){
sim = acdpath(fspec, n.sim = 1, n.start = 0, m.sim = m.sim,
presigma = presig, preskew = preskew,
preshape = preshape, prereturns = prereturns,
preresiduals = NA, rseed = NA,
mexsimdata = mxsim, vexsimdata = vxsim,
skxsimdata = skxsim, shxsimdata = shxsim,
cluster = cluster)
seriesfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$seriesSim, 1, "mean")
sigmafor[j, i] = sqrt(apply(sim@path$sigmaSim^2, 1, "mean"))
tskewfor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$skewSim, 1, "mean")
tshapefor[j, i] = apply(sim@path$shapeSim, 1, "mean")
# update the previous values:
prereturns[mx] = seriesfor[j, i]
presig[mx] = sigmafor[j, i]
preskew[mx] = tskewfor[j, i]
preshape[mx] = tshapefor[j, i]
}
}
}
fcst = list()
fcst$n.ahead = n.ahead
fcst$n.roll = n.roll
fcst$N = N+ns
fcst$n.start = ns
fcst$seriesFor = seriesfor
fcst$sigmaFor = sigmafor
fcst$tskewFor = tskewfor
fcst$tshapeFor = tshapefor
model$modeldata$sigma = flt@filter$sigma
model$modeldata$residuals = flt@filter$residuals
model$modeldata$tskew = flt@filter$tskew
model$modeldata$tshape = flt@filter$tshape
ans = new("ACDforecast",
forecast = fcst,
model = model)
return(ans)
}
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