pnshift<-function(n,time,t,lambda,mu,rho=1){
i <- inter(time,t)
rho1<-rho
rho<-lambda*0+1
rho[1]<-rho1
probext<-q2(i,time,t,lambda,mu,rho)
if (n==0){res<-probext} else {
res<-1-probext
Finv<- 1/Ffuncshift(time,t,lambda,mu,rho1)
res<-res*Finv*(1-Finv)^(n-1)}
res
}
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