Description Usage Format Source References
10,000 realizations of a ternary probability forecast, which exhibits different characteristics, depending on the realizing outcome variable. Idealized forecast example, generated as described in Wilks (2013).
1 |
A data frame with 10,000 rows and 6 variables.
forecast probability for outcome 1
forecast probability for outcome 3
outcomes, such that the forecast is well-calibrated
outcomes, such that the forecast is overconfident
outcomes, such that the forecast is underconfident
outcomes, such that the forecast is unconditionally biased
Data generated by package author.
Daniel S. Wilks, 2013, The Calibration Simplex: A Generalization of the Reliability Diagram for Three-Category Probability Forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 28, 1210-1218
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