plot_fan: Generate time-outcome fan plots

In DUToolkit: Visualizing and Quantifying Decision Uncertainty

Generate time-outcome fan plots

Description

For each policy alternative, this function generates time-outcome fan plots summarizing the trajectory of the outcome over time using the mean value for a given policy alternative. Uncertainty is characterized by shading the 50% and 95% credible intervals (calculated as 25th and 75th percentiles and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles, respectively). The decision threshold is shown directly on the plot to provide a clear reference point for interpreting the outcome values.

Usage

plot_fan(data, tmin, tmax, Dt, Dt_max = TRUE)

Arguments

data	A list of data.frames (one data.frame for each policy alternative).
tmin	A numeric value or a date specifying the minimum simulation time to include in the analysis (ex. 1 or "2021-01-01"). This should correspond to a value in the first column of each data.frame in data.
tmax	A numeric value or a date specifying the maximum simulation time to include in the analysis (ex. 100 or "2021-04-10"). This should correspond to a value in the first column of each data.frame in data.
Dt	A numeric vector of decision thresholds, one for each model time step between tmin and tmax.
Dt_max	A logical value indicating whether the decision threshold is a maximum (TRUE) or a minimum (FALSE). The default is TRUE.

Value

A list of ggplots, one for each policy alternative.

data format

Each data.frame in data contains the results from multiple model runs using different parameter sets (e.g., from probabilistic sensitivity, uncertainty, or Bayesian inference analysis). The first column contains the model time and subsequent columns contain the predicted output for each simulation run at the respective time. The model time in the first column must contain numeric values indicating a simulation time (ex. 1, 2, 3,...) or dates (ex. "2021-01-01", "2021-01-02") which must be in R Date format (i.e., class="Date"). To ensure a consistent basis for comparison, the model time in the first column should be the same for each policy alternative (data.frame).

Examples

tmin <- "2021-01-01"
tmax <- "2021-04-10"
Dt <- rep(750, nrow(psa_data$Baseline))

fan_plots <- plot_fan(
  psa_data,
  tmin = tmin,
  tmax = tmax,
  Dt = Dt,
  Dt_max = TRUE
)

DUToolkit documentation built on Sept. 14, 2025, 5:09 p.m.