Nothing
In IPSUR: Introduction to Probability and Statistics Using R
RcmdrTestDrive Story {#cha-rcmdrtestdrive-story}
The goal of RcmdrTestDrive was to have a data set sufficiently rich
in the types of data represented such that a person could load it into
the (\mathsf{R}) Commander and be able to explore all of Rcmdr's
menu options at once. I decided early-on that an efficient way to do
this would be to generate the data set randomly, and later add to the
list of variables as more Rcmdr menu options became
available. Generating the data was easy, but generating a story that
related all of the respective variables proved to be less so.
In the Summer of 2006 I gave a version of the raw data and variable
names to my STAT 3743 Probability and Statistics class and invited
each of them to write a short story linking all of the variables
together in a coherent narrative. No further direction was given.
The most colorful of those I received was written by Jeffery
Cornfield, submitted July 12, 2006, and is included below with his
permission. It was edited slightly by the present author and updated
to respond dynamically to the random generation of RcmdrTestDrive;
otherwise, the story has been unchanged.
Case File: ALU-179 "Murder Madness in Toon Town"
```{block, type="quote"}
WARNING This file is not for the faint of heart, dear reader,
because it is filled with horrible images that will haunt your
nightmares. If you are weak of stomach, have irritable bowel syndrome,
or are simply paranoid, DO NOT READ FURTHER! Otherwise, read at your
own risk.
One fine sunny day, Police Chief R. Runner called up the forensics
department at Acme-Looney University. There had been
`r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2` murders in the past
`r round((dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2)/24)` days, approximately
one murder every hour, of many of the local Human workers, shop
keepers, and residents of Toon Town. These alarming rates threatened
to destroy the fragile balance of Toon and Human camaraderie that had
developed in Toon Town.
Professor Twee T. Bird, a world-renowned forensics specialist and a
Czechoslovakian native, received the call. "Professor, we need your
expertise in this field to identify the pattern of the killer or
killers," Chief Runner exclaimed. "We need to establish a link between
these people to stop this massacre."
"Yes, Chief Runner, please give me the details of the case," Professor
Bird declared with a heavy native accent, (though, for the sake of the
case file, reader, I have decided to leave out the accent due to the
fact that it would obviously drive you -- if you will forgive the pun
-- looney!)
"All prints are wiped clean and there are no identifiable marks on the
bodies of the victims. All we are able to come up with is the
possibility that perhaps there is some kind of alternative method of
which we are unaware. We have sent a secure e-mail with a listing of
all of the victims’ `races`, `genders`, locations of the bodies, and
the sequential `order` in which they were killed. We have also
included other information that might be helpful," said Chief Runner.
"Thank you very much. Perhaps I will contact my colleague in the
Statistics Department here, Dr. Elmer Fudd-Einstein," exclaimed
Professor Bird. "He might be able to identify a pattern of attack with
mathematics and statistics."
"Good luck trying to find him, Professor. Last I heard, he had a
bottle of scotch and was in the Hundred Acre Woods hunting rabbits,"
Chief Runner declared in a manner that questioned the beloved doctor’s
credibility.
"Perhaps I will take a drive to find him. The fresh air will do me
good."
```{block, type="quote"}
I will skip ahead, dear reader, for much occurred during this
time. Needless to say, after a fierce battle with a mountain cat that
the Toon-ology Department tagged earlier in the year as "Sylvester,"
Professor Bird found Dr. Fudd-Einstein and brought him back, with much
bribery of alcohol and the promise of the future slaying of those
"wascally wabbits" (it would help to explain that Dr. Fudd-Einstein
had a speech impediment which was only worsened during the consumption
of alcohol.)
Once our two heroes returned to the beautiful Acme-Looney University,
and once Dr. Fudd-Einstein became sober and coherent, they set off to
examine the case and begin solving these mysterious murders.
"First off," Dr. Fudd-Einstein explained, "these people all worked at
the University at some point or another. Also, there also seems to be
a trend in the fact that they all had a salary between
r round(min(RcmdrTestDrive$salary)) and
r round(max(RcmdrTestDrive$salary)) when they retired."
"That’s not really a lot to live off of," explained Professor Bird.
"Yes, but you forget that the Looney Currency System works differently
than the rest of the American Currency System. One Looney is
equivalent to Ten American Dollars. Also, these faculty members are
the ones who faced a cut in their salary, as denoted by
reduction. Some of them dropped quite substantially when the
University had to fix that little faux pas in the Chemistry
Department. You remember: when Dr. D. Duck tried to create that
‘Everlasting Elixir?’ As a result, these faculty left the
university. Speaking of which, when is his memorial service?" inquired
Dr. Fudd-Einstein.
"This coming Monday. But if there were all of these killings, how in
the world could one person do it? It just doesn’t seem to be possible;
stay up r round((dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2)/24) days
straight and be able to kill all of these people and have the energy
to continue on," Professor Bird exclaimed, doubting the guilt of only
one person.
"Perhaps then, it was a group of people, perhaps there was more than
one killer placed throughout Toon Town to commit these crimes. If I
feed in these variables, along with any others that might have a
pattern, the Acme Computer will give us an accurate reading of
suspects, with a scant probability of error. As you know, the Acme
Computer was developed entirely in house here at Acme-Looney
University," Dr. Fudd-Einstein said as he began feeding the numbers
into the massive server.
"Hey, look at this," Professor Bird exclaimed, "What’s with this
before and after information?"
"Scroll down; it shows it as a note from the coroner’s
office. Apparently Toon Town Coroner Marvin -- that strange fellow
from Mars, Pennsylvania -- feels, in his opinion, that given the fact
that the cadavers were either smokers or non-smokers, and given
their personal health, and family medical history, that this was their
life expectancy before contact with cigarettes or second-hand smoke
and after," Dr. Fudd-Einstein declared matter-of-factly.
"Well, would race or gender have something to do with it, Elmer?"
inquired Professor Bird.
"Maybe, but I would bet my money on somebody was trying to quiet these
faculty before they made a big ruckus about the secret
money-laundering of Old Man Acme. You know, most people think that is
how the University receives most of its funds, through the mob
families out of Chicago. And I would be willing to bet that these
faculty figured out the connection and were ready to tell the Looney
Police." Dr. Fudd-Einstein spoke lower, fearing that somebody would
overhear their conversation.
Dr. Fudd-Einstein then pressed Enter on the keyboard and waited for
the results. The massive computer roared to life... and when I say
roared, I mean it literally roared. All the hidden bells, whistles,
and alarm clocks in its secret compartments came out and created such
a loud racket that classes across the university had to come to a
stand-still until it finished computing.
Once it was completed, the computer listed 4 names:
SUSPECTS
Yosemite Sam ("Looney" Insane Asylum)Wile E. Coyote (deceased) Foghorn Leghorn (whereabouts unknown) Granny (1313 Mockingbird Lane, Toon Town USA)
Dr. Fudd-Einstein and Professor Bird looked on in silence. They could
not believe their eyes. The greatest computer on the Gulf of Mexico
seaboard just released the most obscure results imaginable.
"There seems to be a mistake. Perhaps something is off," Professor
Bird asked, still unable to believe the results.
"Not possible; the Acme Computer takes into account every kind of
connection available. It considers affiliations to groups, and
affiliations those groups have to other groups. It checks the FBI,
CIA, British intelligence, NAACP, AARP, NSA, JAG, TWA, EPA, FDA, USWA,
R, MAPLE, SPSS, SAS, and Ben & Jerry’s files to identify
possible links, creating the most powerful computer in the
world... with a tweak of Toon fanaticism," Dr. Fudd-Einstein
proclaimed, being a proud co-founder of the Acme Computer Technology.
"Wait a minute, Ben & Jerry? What would eating ice cream have to do
with anything?" Professor Bird inquired.
"It is in the works now, but a few of my fellow statistician
colleagues are trying to find a mathematical model to link the type of
ice cream consumed to the type of person they might become. Assassins
always ate vanilla with chocolate sprinkles, a little known fact they
would tell you about Oswald and Booth," Dr. Fudd-Einstein declared.
"I’ve heard about this. My forensics graduate students are trying to
identify car thieves with either rocky road or mint chocolate chip… so
far, the pattern is showing a clear trend with chocolate chip,"
Professor Bird declared. "Well, what do we know about these suspects,
Twee?" Dr. Fudd-Einstein asked.
"Yosemite Sam was locked up after trying to rob that bank in the West
Borough. Apparently his guns were switched and he was sent the Acme
Kids Joke Gun and they blew up in his face. The containers of peroxide
they contained turned all of his facial hair red. Some little child is
running around Toon Town with a pair of .38’s to this day.
"Wile E. Coyote was that psychopath working for the Yahtzee - the
fanatics who believed that Toons were superior to Humans. He strapped
sticks of Acme Dynamite to his chest to be a martyr for the cause, but
before he got to the middle of Toon Town, this defective TNT blew him
up. Not a single other person -- Toon or Human -- was even close.
"Foghorn Leghorn is the most infamous Dog Kidnapper of all times. He
goes to the homes of prominent Dog citizens and holds one of their
relatives for ransom. If they refuse to pay, he sends them to the
pound. Either way, they’re sure stuck in the dog house," Professor
Bird laughed. Dr. Fudd-Einstein didn’t seem amused, so Professor Bird
continued.
"Granny is the most beloved alumnus of Acme-Looney University. She was
in the first graduating class and gives graciously each year to the
university. Without her continued financial support, we wouldn’t have
the jobs we do. She worked as a parking attendant at the University
lots... wait a minute, take a look at this," Professor Bird said as he
scrolled down in the police information. "Granny’s signature is on
each of these faculty members’ parking tickets. Kind of odd,
considering the Chief-of-Parking signed each personally. The deceased
had from as few as r min(RcmdrTestDrive$parking) ticket to as
many as r max(RcmdrTestDrive$parking). All tickets were unpaid.
"And look at this, Granny married Old Man Acme after graduation. He
was a resident of Chicago and rumored to be a consigliere to one of
the most prominent crime families in Chicago, the Chuck Jones/Warner
Crime Family," Professor Bird read from the screen as a cold feeling
of terror rose from the pit of his stomach.
"Say, don’t you live at her house? Wow, you’re living under the same
roof as one of the greatest criminals/murderers of all time!"
Dr. Fudd-Einstein said in awe and sarcasm.
"I would never have suspected her, but I guess it makes sense. She is
older, so she doesn’t need near the amount of sleep as a younger
person. She has access to all of the vehicles so she can copy license
plate numbers and follow them to their houses. She has the finances to
pay for this kind of massive campaign on behalf of the Mob, and she
hates anyone that even remotely smells like smoke," Professor Bird
explained, wishing to have his hit of nicotine at this time.
"Well, I guess there is nothing left to do but to call Police Chief
Runner and have him arrest her," Dr. Fudd-Einstein explained as he
began dialing. "What I can’t understand is how in the world the Police
Chief sent me all of this information and somehow seemed to screw it
up."
"What do you mean?" inquired Professor Bird.
"Well, look here. The data file from the Chief's email shows
r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] murders, but there have only been
r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2. This doesn’t make any
sense. I’ll have to straighten it out. Hey, wait a minute. Look at
this, Person number r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 1 and Person
number r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] seem to match our
stats. But how can that be?"
It was at this moment that our two heroes were shot from behind and
fell over the computer, dead. The killer hit Delete on the computer
and walked out slowly (considering they had arthritis) and cackling
loudly in the now quiet computer lab.
And so, I guess my question to you the reader is, did Granny murder
r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] people, or did the murderer slip
through the cracks of justice? You be the statistician and come to
your own conclusion.
Detective Pyork E. Pig
End File
\vfill{}
\cleardoublepage
\phantomsection
\addcontentsline{toc}{chapter}{\bibname}
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RcmdrTestDrive Story {#cha-rcmdrtestdrive-story}
The goal of RcmdrTestDrive was to have a data set sufficiently rich
in the types of data represented such that a person could load it into
the (\mathsf{R}) Commander and be able to explore all of Rcmdr's
menu options at once. I decided early-on that an efficient way to do
this would be to generate the data set randomly, and later add to the
list of variables as more Rcmdr menu options became
available. Generating the data was easy, but generating a story that
related all of the respective variables proved to be less so.
In the Summer of 2006 I gave a version of the raw data and variable names to my STAT 3743 Probability and Statistics class and invited each of them to write a short story linking all of the variables together in a coherent narrative. No further direction was given.
The most colorful of those I received was written by Jeffery
Cornfield, submitted July 12, 2006, and is included below with his
permission. It was edited slightly by the present author and updated
to respond dynamically to the random generation of RcmdrTestDrive;
otherwise, the story has been unchanged.
Case File: ALU-179 "Murder Madness in Toon Town"
```{block, type="quote"} WARNING This file is not for the faint of heart, dear reader, because it is filled with horrible images that will haunt your nightmares. If you are weak of stomach, have irritable bowel syndrome, or are simply paranoid, DO NOT READ FURTHER! Otherwise, read at your own risk.
One fine sunny day, Police Chief R. Runner called up the forensics
department at Acme-Looney University. There had been
`r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2` murders in the past
`r round((dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2)/24)` days, approximately
one murder every hour, of many of the local Human workers, shop
keepers, and residents of Toon Town. These alarming rates threatened
to destroy the fragile balance of Toon and Human camaraderie that had
developed in Toon Town.
Professor Twee T. Bird, a world-renowned forensics specialist and a
Czechoslovakian native, received the call. "Professor, we need your
expertise in this field to identify the pattern of the killer or
killers," Chief Runner exclaimed. "We need to establish a link between
these people to stop this massacre."
"Yes, Chief Runner, please give me the details of the case," Professor
Bird declared with a heavy native accent, (though, for the sake of the
case file, reader, I have decided to leave out the accent due to the
fact that it would obviously drive you -- if you will forgive the pun
-- looney!)
"All prints are wiped clean and there are no identifiable marks on the
bodies of the victims. All we are able to come up with is the
possibility that perhaps there is some kind of alternative method of
which we are unaware. We have sent a secure e-mail with a listing of
all of the victims’ `races`, `genders`, locations of the bodies, and
the sequential `order` in which they were killed. We have also
included other information that might be helpful," said Chief Runner.
"Thank you very much. Perhaps I will contact my colleague in the
Statistics Department here, Dr. Elmer Fudd-Einstein," exclaimed
Professor Bird. "He might be able to identify a pattern of attack with
mathematics and statistics."
"Good luck trying to find him, Professor. Last I heard, he had a
bottle of scotch and was in the Hundred Acre Woods hunting rabbits,"
Chief Runner declared in a manner that questioned the beloved doctor’s
credibility.
"Perhaps I will take a drive to find him. The fresh air will do me
good."
```{block, type="quote"}
I will skip ahead, dear reader, for much occurred during this
time. Needless to say, after a fierce battle with a mountain cat that
the Toon-ology Department tagged earlier in the year as "Sylvester,"
Professor Bird found Dr. Fudd-Einstein and brought him back, with much
bribery of alcohol and the promise of the future slaying of those
"wascally wabbits" (it would help to explain that Dr. Fudd-Einstein
had a speech impediment which was only worsened during the consumption
of alcohol.)
Once our two heroes returned to the beautiful Acme-Looney University, and once Dr. Fudd-Einstein became sober and coherent, they set off to examine the case and begin solving these mysterious murders.
"First off," Dr. Fudd-Einstein explained, "these people all worked at
the University at some point or another. Also, there also seems to be
a trend in the fact that they all had a salary between
r round(min(RcmdrTestDrive$salary)) and
r round(max(RcmdrTestDrive$salary)) when they retired."
"That’s not really a lot to live off of," explained Professor Bird.
"Yes, but you forget that the Looney Currency System works differently
than the rest of the American Currency System. One Looney is
equivalent to Ten American Dollars. Also, these faculty members are
the ones who faced a cut in their salary, as denoted by
reduction. Some of them dropped quite substantially when the
University had to fix that little faux pas in the Chemistry
Department. You remember: when Dr. D. Duck tried to create that
‘Everlasting Elixir?’ As a result, these faculty left the
university. Speaking of which, when is his memorial service?" inquired
Dr. Fudd-Einstein.
"This coming Monday. But if there were all of these killings, how in
the world could one person do it? It just doesn’t seem to be possible;
stay up r round((dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2)/24) days
straight and be able to kill all of these people and have the energy
to continue on," Professor Bird exclaimed, doubting the guilt of only
one person.
"Perhaps then, it was a group of people, perhaps there was more than one killer placed throughout Toon Town to commit these crimes. If I feed in these variables, along with any others that might have a pattern, the Acme Computer will give us an accurate reading of suspects, with a scant probability of error. As you know, the Acme Computer was developed entirely in house here at Acme-Looney University," Dr. Fudd-Einstein said as he began feeding the numbers into the massive server.
"Hey, look at this," Professor Bird exclaimed, "What’s with this
before and after information?"
"Scroll down; it shows it as a note from the coroner’s
office. Apparently Toon Town Coroner Marvin -- that strange fellow
from Mars, Pennsylvania -- feels, in his opinion, that given the fact
that the cadavers were either smokers or non-smokers, and given
their personal health, and family medical history, that this was their
life expectancy before contact with cigarettes or second-hand smoke
and after," Dr. Fudd-Einstein declared matter-of-factly.
"Well, would race or gender have something to do with it, Elmer?" inquired Professor Bird.
"Maybe, but I would bet my money on somebody was trying to quiet these faculty before they made a big ruckus about the secret money-laundering of Old Man Acme. You know, most people think that is how the University receives most of its funds, through the mob families out of Chicago. And I would be willing to bet that these faculty figured out the connection and were ready to tell the Looney Police." Dr. Fudd-Einstein spoke lower, fearing that somebody would overhear their conversation.
Dr. Fudd-Einstein then pressed Enter on the keyboard and waited for
the results. The massive computer roared to life... and when I say
roared, I mean it literally roared. All the hidden bells, whistles,
and alarm clocks in its secret compartments came out and created such
a loud racket that classes across the university had to come to a
stand-still until it finished computing.
Once it was completed, the computer listed 4 names:
SUSPECTS
Yosemite Sam ("Looney" Insane Asylum)Wile E. Coyote (deceased)Foghorn Leghorn (whereabouts unknown)Granny (1313 Mockingbird Lane, Toon Town USA)
Dr. Fudd-Einstein and Professor Bird looked on in silence. They could not believe their eyes. The greatest computer on the Gulf of Mexico seaboard just released the most obscure results imaginable.
"There seems to be a mistake. Perhaps something is off," Professor Bird asked, still unable to believe the results.
"Not possible; the Acme Computer takes into account every kind of connection available. It considers affiliations to groups, and affiliations those groups have to other groups. It checks the FBI, CIA, British intelligence, NAACP, AARP, NSA, JAG, TWA, EPA, FDA, USWA, R, MAPLE, SPSS, SAS, and Ben & Jerry’s files to identify possible links, creating the most powerful computer in the world... with a tweak of Toon fanaticism," Dr. Fudd-Einstein proclaimed, being a proud co-founder of the Acme Computer Technology.
"Wait a minute, Ben & Jerry? What would eating ice cream have to do with anything?" Professor Bird inquired.
"It is in the works now, but a few of my fellow statistician colleagues are trying to find a mathematical model to link the type of ice cream consumed to the type of person they might become. Assassins always ate vanilla with chocolate sprinkles, a little known fact they would tell you about Oswald and Booth," Dr. Fudd-Einstein declared.
"I’ve heard about this. My forensics graduate students are trying to identify car thieves with either rocky road or mint chocolate chip… so far, the pattern is showing a clear trend with chocolate chip," Professor Bird declared. "Well, what do we know about these suspects, Twee?" Dr. Fudd-Einstein asked.
"Yosemite Sam was locked up after trying to rob that bank in the West Borough. Apparently his guns were switched and he was sent the Acme Kids Joke Gun and they blew up in his face. The containers of peroxide they contained turned all of his facial hair red. Some little child is running around Toon Town with a pair of .38’s to this day.
"Wile E. Coyote was that psychopath working for the Yahtzee - the fanatics who believed that Toons were superior to Humans. He strapped sticks of Acme Dynamite to his chest to be a martyr for the cause, but before he got to the middle of Toon Town, this defective TNT blew him up. Not a single other person -- Toon or Human -- was even close.
"Foghorn Leghorn is the most infamous Dog Kidnapper of all times. He goes to the homes of prominent Dog citizens and holds one of their relatives for ransom. If they refuse to pay, he sends them to the pound. Either way, they’re sure stuck in the dog house," Professor Bird laughed. Dr. Fudd-Einstein didn’t seem amused, so Professor Bird continued.
"Granny is the most beloved alumnus of Acme-Looney University. She was
in the first graduating class and gives graciously each year to the
university. Without her continued financial support, we wouldn’t have
the jobs we do. She worked as a parking attendant at the University
lots... wait a minute, take a look at this," Professor Bird said as he
scrolled down in the police information. "Granny’s signature is on
each of these faculty members’ parking tickets. Kind of odd,
considering the Chief-of-Parking signed each personally. The deceased
had from as few as r min(RcmdrTestDrive$parking) ticket to as
many as r max(RcmdrTestDrive$parking). All tickets were unpaid.
"And look at this, Granny married Old Man Acme after graduation. He was a resident of Chicago and rumored to be a consigliere to one of the most prominent crime families in Chicago, the Chuck Jones/Warner Crime Family," Professor Bird read from the screen as a cold feeling of terror rose from the pit of his stomach.
"Say, don’t you live at her house? Wow, you’re living under the same roof as one of the greatest criminals/murderers of all time!" Dr. Fudd-Einstein said in awe and sarcasm.
"I would never have suspected her, but I guess it makes sense. She is older, so she doesn’t need near the amount of sleep as a younger person. She has access to all of the vehicles so she can copy license plate numbers and follow them to their houses. She has the finances to pay for this kind of massive campaign on behalf of the Mob, and she hates anyone that even remotely smells like smoke," Professor Bird explained, wishing to have his hit of nicotine at this time.
"Well, I guess there is nothing left to do but to call Police Chief Runner and have him arrest her," Dr. Fudd-Einstein explained as he began dialing. "What I can’t understand is how in the world the Police Chief sent me all of this information and somehow seemed to screw it up."
"What do you mean?" inquired Professor Bird.
"Well, look here. The data file from the Chief's email shows
r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] murders, but there have only been
r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 2. This doesn’t make any
sense. I’ll have to straighten it out. Hey, wait a minute. Look at
this, Person number r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] - 1 and Person
number r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] seem to match our
stats. But how can that be?"
It was at this moment that our two heroes were shot from behind and
fell over the computer, dead. The killer hit Delete on the computer
and walked out slowly (considering they had arthritis) and cackling
loudly in the now quiet computer lab.
And so, I guess my question to you the reader is, did Granny murder
r dim(RcmdrTestDrive)[1] people, or did the murderer slip
through the cracks of justice? You be the statistician and come to
your own conclusion.
Detective Pyork E. Pig
End File
\vfill{}
\cleardoublepage \phantomsection \addcontentsline{toc}{chapter}{\bibname}
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