LMoFit | Advanced L-Moment Fitting of Distributions"

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library(LMoFit)

Citation to this package:

"Zaghloul M, Papalexiou S, Elshorbagy A (2020). LMoFit: Advanced L-Moment Fitting of Distributions. R package version 0.1.6."


Introduction {#section_1}

In the practice of frequency analysis, some probability distributions are abandoned due to the absence of a convenient way of handling them. Burr Type-III (BrIII), Burr Type-XII (BrXII), and Generalized Gamma (GG) distributions are examples of such abandoned distributions. Most past studies involving frequency analysis ignored the unconventional distributions regardless of their remarkable advantages. For example, Zaghloul et al. (2020) reveals the importance of using BrIII and BrXII distributions instead of the commonly used Generalized Extreme Value (gev) distribution for flood frequency analysis across Canada. Also, Papalexiou and Koutsoyiannis (2016) recommended the use of BrXII and GG distributions for describing daily precipitation across the globe.

Various conventional and unconventional distribution are covered by LMoFit, which is the first package that facilitated the use of some unconventional distributions that are:

(1) Burr Type-III (BrIII) (2) Burr Type-XII (BrXII) (3) Generalized Gamma (GG)

While the commonly used conventional distributions are masked from the 'lmom' package by Hosking, J.R.M. (2019). These conventional distributions are:

(4) Normal (nor) (5) Log-Normal (ln3) (6) Pearson Type-3 (pe3) (7) Generalized Normal (gno) (8) Generalized Pareto (gpa) (9) Generalized Logistic (glo) (10) Gamma (gam) (11) Generalized Extreme Value (gev) with different parameterization

For each of the above-mentioned distributions, LMoFit provides functions that:


Overview of functions {#section_2}

Estimation of sample L-moments and L-moment ratios

LMoFit follows the method of Hosking, J.R.M. (1990) in estimating sample L-moments. The function is referred to as get_sample_lmom() and can be implemented as follows. For an embedded sample FLOW_AMAX of annual maximum streamflow in cfs observed at a gauge in BC, Vancouver, Canada @ Lat: 51°14'36.8¨N, Long:116°54'46.6¨W.

FLOW_AMAX

the sample L-moments and L-moment ratios are estimated as

sample_lmoments <- get_sample_lmom(x = FLOW_AMAX)
knitr::kable(sample_lmoments, digits = 2, caption = "Sample L-moments and L-moment ratios")

where

Fitting (parameter estimation) functions

Fitting functions are called by adding a prefix fit_ before a distribution name. e.x. fit_BrIII, fit_BrXII, fit_GG, fit_gev, etc. An example of estimating the fitted parameters of some randomly generated sample can be implemented as

Assume that the sample L-moments are:

# Fitting of BrIII distribution
parameters <- fit_BrIII(sl1 = 436, st2 = 0.144, st3 = 0.103)
scale <- parameters$scale
shape1 <- parameters$shape1
shape2 <- parameters$shape2

This function results in the fitted parameters that are scale, shape1, and shape2 parameters for BrIII distribution.

knitr::kable(parameters[1:3], digits = 2, caption = "Estimated parameters of BrIII distribution")

Cumulative probability distribution functions

A cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) estimates the probability of non-exceedance. CDF functions are called in LMoFit by adding a prefix 'p' before a distribution name. e.x. pBrIII, pBrXII, pGG, pgev, etc. An example of implementing such functions is provided for the BrXII distribution as follows.

Assume that the fitting of BrXII to a sample results in the following parameters:

The probability of non-exceedance of 500 is estimated as

scale <- 322; shape1 <- 6.22; shape2 <- 0.12
probability <- pBrXII(x = 500, para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
probability

This function can also be implemented to a vector of quantities of interest such as

probability <- pBrXII(x = c(400, 450, 500, 550, 600, 1000), para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
probability

Probability density functions

The probability density functions (PDF) are called in LMoFit by adding a prefix 'd' before a distribution name. e.x. dBrIII, dBrXII, dGG, dgev, etc. An example of implementing such functions is provided for the gev distribution as follows.

Assume that the fitting of gev to a sample results in the following parameters:

The probability density of a value of 200 is estimated as

location <- 388; scale <- 99; shape <- -0.11
density <- dgev(x = 200, para = c(location, scale, shape))
density

This function can also be implemented to a vector of quantities of interest such as

density <- dgev(x = c(100, 150, 200, 250, 300), para = c(location, scale, shape))
density

Quantile distribution functions

The quantile functions in LMoFit are called by adding a prefix 'q' before a distribution name. e.x. qBrIII, qBrXII, qGG, qgev, etc. This is one of the most useful and handy functions in LMoFit because it enables the user to estimate quantiles corresponding to specific probabilities or directly corresponding to specific return periods.

Assume the estimated BrIII parameters are

scale <- 565.29; shape1 <- 5.75; shape2 <- 0.13

then the quantile that corresponds to a non-exceedance probability of 0.99 is

qua <- qBrIII(u = 0.99, para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
qua

and the quantile that corresponds to a return period of 100 years is

qua <- qBrIII(RP = 100, para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
qua

The quantile functions can also be implemented for multiple probabilities or return periods as

qua <- qBrIII(RP = c(5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200), para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
qua

Return period functions

A return period function is the same as the CDF but after transforming probabilities to their corresponding return periods. This transformation is a simple process that was previously neglected and left for the user. However, LMoFit is developed to be handy and user friendly. So, the return period functions are included in LMoFit and are called by adding a prefix 't' before a distribution name. e.x. tBrIII, tBrXII, tGG, tgev, etc. An example of implementing such functions is provided for the BrXII distribution as follows.

Assume that the fitting of BrXII to a sample results in the following parameters:

The return period of a quantity equal to 800 is estimated as

scale <- 322; shape1 <- 6.22; shape2 <- 0.12
return_period <- tBrXII(x = 800, para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
return_period

This function can also be implemented to a vector of quantities of interest such as

return_period <- tBrXII(x = c(500, 600, 700, 800), para = c(scale, shape1, shape2))
return_period

Theoretical L-space of BrIII distribution

Distributions with two shape parameters such as the BrIII distribution are presented on the L-moment ratio diagram as a theoretical L-space. LMoFit developed the theoretical L-space of the BrIII distribution and embedded its results as a ggplot in the package data. Users can call the L-space plot of the BrIII as lspace_BrIII and apply any desired adjustments to it as for regular ggplots.

lspace_BrIII

Theoretical L-space of BrXII distribution

The BrXII Distributions also has two shape parameters and can be presented on the L-moment ratio diagram as a theoretical L-space. LMoFit developed the theoretical L-space of the BrXII distribution and embedded its results as a ggplot in the package data. Users can call the L-space plot of the BrXII as lspace_BrXII and apply any desired adjustments to it as for regular ggplots.

lspace_BrXII

Theoretical L-space of GG distribution

The GG Distributions is another case of distributions having two shape parameters so it can also be presented on the L-moment ratio diagram with a theoretical L-space. LMoFit developed the theoretical L-space of the GG distribution and embedded its results as a ggplot in the package data. Users can call the L-space plot of the GG as lspace_GG and apply any desired adjustments to it as for regular ggplots.

lspace_GG 

Goodness of fitting on L-moment ratio diagrams

There are numerous criteria for comparing the goodness of fitting of probability distributions. A very important preliminary test should be a visual inspection of the L-moment ratio diagrams. The sample, that the distributions are fitted to, is presented on the L-moment ratio diagram as an L-point. If this L-point lies outside the L-space of any two-shape parametric distribution, then the distribution is not valid to describe the sample.

For a single sample such as the sample provided as FLOW_AMAX, the test can be implemented by calling the function com_sam_lspace() accounting for 'compare a sample with an L-space'. This function is valid for the two-shape parametric distributions that are BrIII, BrXII, and GG. The L-point of the sample is presented by a red point mark on the diagrams.

com_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX, type = "s", Dist = "BrIII")
com_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX, type = "s", Dist = "BrXII")
com_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX, type = "s", Dist = "GG")

For multiple samples, such as streamflow observed at various sites, the sample of each site is presented by one L-point on the L-moment ratio diagram. Therefore, by implementing the visual test to multiple samples we can identify distributions that have their L-spaces overlaying the greatest portion of L-points and therefore we can select the best regionally valid distribution. com_sam_lspace is developed to be flexible and user friendly. The user can use the same function with multiple sites by changing the type condition from type = "s" to type = "m". Ten hypothetical samples are developed at 10 hypothetical sites and embedded in the package data as FLOW_AMAX_MULT. FLOW_AMAX_MULT is a dataframe with 10 columns where each column describes the sample at one site.

colnames(FLOW_AMAX_MULT) <- paste0("site.", 1:10)
knitr::kable(head(FLOW_AMAX_MULT), caption = "The first few observations of streamflow at 10 sites")

An example of a regional visual test is implemented as

com_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX_MULT, type = "m", Dist = "BrIII", shape = 20)
com_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX_MULT, type = "m", Dist = "BrXII", shape = 20)
com_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX_MULT, type = "m", Dist = "GG", shape = 20)

These diagrams are still in ggplot format and can be further adjusted by the user.

In the last example, the visual test with multiple samples FLOW_AMAX_MULT reveals that the L-space of BrIII combines the greatest amount of L-points and therefore BrIII should be a better candidate compared to BrXII and GG distributions.

Condition of sample L-points as inside/outside of L-spaces

As the number of multiple points increases, the corresponding number of L-points increases, and it gets harder to make a visual judgment. For that reason, LMoFit provides an extra function to test the condition of each L-point of the multiple samples and identify it as inside or outside the L-space of interest. All L-points that are overlaid by the L-space are assigned a flag 'lpoint_inside_lspace', or 'lpoint_outside_lspace' otherwise.

flags_BrIII <- con_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX_MULT, type = "m", Dist = "BrIII")
knitr::kable(head(flags_BrIII), caption = "Flags obtained for BrIII's L-space")
flags_GG <- con_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX_MULT, type = "m", Dist = "GG")
knitr::kable(head(flags_GG), caption = "Flags obtained for GG's L-space")

By counting the number of times the flag was lpoint_inside_lspace we can exactly identify the number of L-points inside each L-space as

counter_BrIII <- nrow(flags_BrIII[flags_BrIII$condition == "lpoint_inside_lspace",])
paste0("the number of L-points inside the L-space of BrIII = ", counter_BrIII)
counter_GG <- nrow(flags_GG[flags_GG$condition == "lpoint_inside_lspace",])
paste0("the number of L-points inside the L-space of GG = ", counter_GG)

Accordingly, we should use BrIII rather than GG as a regional distribution in the latter example.

Note: con_samlmom_lspace() is similar to con_sam_lspace(), but it needs the sample L-moments rather than the sample itself and is only applicable to single samples. The sample L-moments are estimated by using get_sample_lmom().


Step by step guide to frequency analysis {#section_3}

Frequency analysis can be implemented by LMoFit in three steps:

  1. Estimate sample L-moments using 'get_sample_lmom()'.
  2. Fit a specific distribution, for example, BrIII, to the estimated sample L-moments, using 'fit_BrIII()'.
  3. Estimate probabilities "pBrIII()", quantiles "qBrIII()", densities "dBrIII()", or even return periods "tBrIII()".

The three steps are further explained by an example of fitting BrIII to the embedded sample FLOW_AMAX. Since BrIII distribution is to be used, we will check its validity to describe the sample.

con_sam_lspace(sample = FLOW_AMAX, type = "s", Dist = "BrIII")

BrIII passes the visual test since the L-point of the sample is located inside the L-space of BrIII distribution. com_sam_lspace() can also be used for the same purpose.

Next, the sample L-moments can be estimated as follows.

# Step 1
sample <- FLOW_AMAX
samlmoms <- get_sample_lmom(x = sample)

After that, the desired distribution can be fitted to the sample L-moments to determine its fitted parameters.

# Step 2
parameters <- fit_BrIII(sl1 = samlmoms$sl1, st2 = samlmoms$st2, st3 = samlmoms$st3)

Once the fitted parameters are obtained, frequency analysis can be conducted in different forms to estimate probabilities, quantiles, densities, and return periods.

# Step 3
quantile <- qBrIII(RP = c(5, 10, 25, 50, 100),
                    para = c(parameters$scale, parameters$shape1, parameters$shape2))
prob <- pBrIII(x = quantile, 
               para = c(parameters$scale, parameters$shape1, parameters$shape2))
dens <- dBrIII(x = quantile, 
               para = c(parameters$scale, parameters$shape1, parameters$shape2))
T_yrs <- tBrIII(x = quantile, 
                para = c(parameters$scale, parameters$shape1, parameters$shape2))

The results of this example are concluded in the table below.

output <- cbind(Q = round(quantile, digits = 0), 
                CDF = round(prob, digits = 4),
                PDF = round(dens, digits = 5),
                T_yrs)
knitr::kable(output, caption = "Example of fitting BrIII distribution to FLOW_AMAX")

Acknowledgement {#section_4}

This research is financially supported by the Integrated Modeling Program for Canada (IMPC) project under the umbrella of the Global Water Futures (GWF) program at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. S.M.P. acknowledges the support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Discovery Grant: RGPIN ‐2019 ‐06894 ). In addition, M.Z. acknowledges the Department of Civil, Geological, and Environmental Engineering for the financial support of research through the Departmental Devolved Scholarship.


References {#section_5}



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LMoFit documentation built on May 29, 2024, 9:15 a.m.