NPMPM: tertiary probabilistic model in predictive microbiology for use in food manufacture

The main method npmpm calculates bacterial concentrations during food manufacture after a contamination. Variability and uncertainty are included by use of probability distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation. The model aims at predicting possible bacterial concentrations at one certain point in time s, e.g. at the end of a process chain. The process steps of this process chain are run through in linear order. Experimental data that match current process step conditions are gathered, and one deterministic primary model is fitted to every series of measured values. From every fitted curve one concentration of bacteria at time s is computed, yielding a set of concentrations. This sample of possible contamination sizes is assumed to follow a certain probability distribution. After calculation of distribution parameters, one value is randomly drawn from this probability distribution. This value may be modified, and then serves as contamination for the next process step.

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AuthorNadine Schoene
Date of publication2012-10-29 08:57:20
MaintainerNadine Schoene <>
LicenseGPL (>= 2)

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