X_globaltas: Annual warming levels simulated by different CMIP5 GCMs

In QUALYPSO: Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections

Annual warming levels simulated by different CMIP5 GCMs

Description

Annual warming levels at the planetary scales simulated by different CMIP5 GCMs for the period 1971-2099. Warming levels are obtained with respect to the year 1860 (common starting year of the CMIP5 simulations). These warming levels have been obtained with the following steps:

1. Annual tas averages simulated by different CMIP5 have first been smoothed using a smoothing spline. Let us denote these smoothed values by tas_GCM(y) for a year y.

2. Large discrepancies can be observed for tas_GCM_smooth(y) even in the past due to large first-order biases in the GCM simulations. In order to obtain a common reference, we also consider observed tas estimates at the global scale. HadCRUT5 (Morice et al., 2021, 10.1029/2019JD032361) provides anomalies with respect to the period 1961-1990. An estimate of absolute average temperature for this period is 14°C (Jones et al., 1999, 10.1029/1999RG900002). Smoothed estimates of absolute tas averages are obtained using a smoothing spline and is denoted by tas_obs(y).

3. Warming levels are obtained as anomalies with respect to the period 1860 and considering a reference year, here 1990, where the warming levels WL are in agreement: WL(y) = tas_GCM(y)-tas_GCM(1990)+tas_obs(1990)-tas_obs(1860)

Usage

data(X_globaltas)

Format

matrix 20 scenarios x 129 years

Author(s)

Guillaume Evin [e-mail]

QUALYPSO documentation built on Oct. 24, 2023, 9:07 a.m.