progression_ratios: Compute grade progression ratios

In enrollcast: Project School Enrollment with Grade Progression Ratios

Compute grade progression ratios

Description

Calculates cohort survival / grade progression ratios from historical grade-level enrollment. For each non-entry grade, the ratio is enrollment in that grade divided by enrollment in the grade below one year earlier, summarised across the available year-to-year transitions.

Usage

progression_ratios(
  data,
  year = "year",
  grade = "grade",
  enrollment = "enrollment",
  method = c("mean", "geometric", "median", "last", "weighted"),
  n_years = NULL,
  weights = NULL,
  grade_order = NULL
)

Arguments

data	A long data frame or data-frame subclass of historical enrollment with one row per grade per year. Enrollment may be NA, but non-missing values must be finite and non-negative; NaN and infinite values are rejected. Year values must be coercible to finite integers and must not be missing.
year, grade, enrollment	Distinct, non-missing character scalars naming columns in data. Defaults are "year", "grade", and "enrollment".
method	How to summarise per-year ratios into one ratio per grade: "mean" (default), "geometric", "median", "last" (most recent transition only), or "weighted".
n_years	Optional. Use only the most recent n_years available adjacent-year transitions. If n_years exceeds the number of available transitions, all are used.
weights	For method = "weighted", a finite, non-missing, non-negative numeric vector aligned most-recent to oldest, with one weight per transition year used and a positive sum. Do not supply weights for other methods.
grade_order	Optional character vector giving the low-to-high grade order. If omitted, factor levels, numeric ordering, or (with a warning) alphabetical ordering is used.

Details

Only transitions between observed consecutive calendar years are used. If the history has one or more calendar-year gaps but still contains an adjacent year pair, the gaps are reported in a warning and are not bridged. Histories with no adjacent year pair are rejected. Gap detection examines the complete supplied history before n_years selects recent adjacent transitions, so an older gap still warns even when it lies outside the selected transitions.

Value

A data frame with columns grade_from, grade_to, and ratio, one row per non-entry grade.

Examples

history <- data.frame(
  year = rep(2021:2023, each = 3),
  grade = factor(rep(c("K", "1", "2"), 3), levels = c("K", "1", "2")),
  enrollment = c(100, 90, 80, 110, 95, 88, 120, 99, 91)
)
progression_ratios(history)

# For method = "weighted", weights align most-recent to oldest: here the
# 2022->2023 transition gets weight 2 and 2021->2022 gets weight 1.
progression_ratios(history, method = "weighted", weights = c(2, 1))

# The same K -> 1 ratio via stats::weighted.mean(). Unlike `weights`
# above, weighted.mean() pairs each weight with the value at the same
# position, and the per-year ratios run oldest to newest -- so the
# weights must be reversed to line up.
k_ratios <- c(95 / 100, 99 / 110) # 2021->2022, then 2022->2023
stats::weighted.mean(k_ratios, rev(c(2, 1)))

enrollcast documentation built on Aug. 27, 2026, 1:08 a.m.