ppensembles: Post-processed ensemble forecasts of temperature and...
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Description Usage Format Details Source References

This is a dataset containing the post-processed forecasts of five ensemble weather prediction models for two-meter temperature from March, 2019 to March, 2021.

1	ppensembles

A named list with five entries, each containing a data.table with 731 rows.

date_run: initial condition date (with format YYYY-MM-DD)
latitude: latitude of the forecast location (in degrees)
longitude: longitude of the forecast location (in degrees)
1 ... 30: forecast in Kelvins sampled from the gaussian distribution. The forecasts are sorted in increasing order.
T: the measured two-meter air temperature in Kelvins

Each ensemble has been post-processed with the non homogeneous regression technique, described in Gneiting et al.(2005). In a nutshell the true distribution is supposed to be gaussian, with mean and standard deviation being a linear function of the ensemble mean and standard deviation (respectively). The intercept and slope of each regression is determined by minimizing the CRPS over a 60-day sliding window. The forecast in the data set is a sample of 30 values from this gaussian distribution.

The five ensemble models are named based on the raw ensemble: CWAO (from ECCC), DEMS (from NCMRWF), ECMF (from ECMWF), EGRR (from UKMO) and RKSL (from KMA).

The raw forecasts are the ones at the nearest grid point to Toulouse-Blagnac station (France) in the TIGGE data set. The observation is the two-meter height temperature measured at this same station, at 06UTC. The forecast initial time is 00UTC, with a 30 hour lead-time.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/tigge/levtype=sfc/type=pf/

https://donneespubliques.meteofrance.fr/?fond=produit&id_produit=91&id_rubrique=32

Gneiting, Tilmann, et al. "Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation." Monthly Weather Review 133.5 (2005): 1098-1118. doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2904.1

flatness documentation built on June 29, 2021, 9:08 a.m.