knitr::opts_chunk$set( collapse = TRUE, comment = "#>", fig.width = 6, fig.height = 4, message = FALSE, warning = FALSE ) # Keep the vignette fast on CRAN by using tiny B is_cran <- !identical(tolower(Sys.getenv("NOT_CRAN")), "true") B_demo <- if (is_cran) 25L else 500L # bootstrap reps k.coef_demo <- 4L set.seed(1)
funbootband computes simultaneous prediction and confidence bands for
dense functional data observed on a common grid.
It supports both i.i.d. and clustered (hierarchical) designs and uses a fast
'Rcpp' backend.
Curves are preprocessed via finite Fourier series
(k.coef harmonics) and bootstrapped to generate empirical distributions, from
which band limits are obtained as quantiles.
The main user function is:
band(data, type = c("prediction","confidence"), alpha = 0.05, iid = TRUE, id = NULL, B = 1000L, k.coef = 50L)
This document gives a quick tour of funbootband, including simulated i.i.d.
and hierarchical examples. The i.i.d. calibration builds on Lenhoff et al.
(1999). Koska et al. (2023) motivated the hierarchical setting, but the
clustered implementation in version 0.3.0 is deliberately revised: it resamples
whole subjects and defines a specific new-subject/new-curve prediction target.
For independent curves $Y_i(t)$, the prediction band targets one independent future curve. A confidence band instead targets the population mean function.
For clustered data, let $Y_{ij}(t)$ denote repeat $j=1,\ldots,m_i$ from subject $i=1,\ldots,K$. The default clustered prediction target is
[ Y_{\mathrm{new}}(t) = \mu(t) + A_{\mathrm{new}}(t) + E_{\mathrm{new}}(t), ]
that is, one curve from an independent new subject. Subjects are sampled with equal probability and curves are sampled equally within subject. The empirical weight of curve $(i,j)$ is therefore
[ q_{ij}=\frac{1}{K m_i}, ]
and the fitted centre is the equally subject-weighted mean
[ \widehat\mu(t)=\frac{1}{K}\sum_{i=1}^K \frac{1}{m_i}\sum_{j=1}^{m_i}Y_{ij}(t). ]
In bootstrap replicate $b$, $K$ subjects are sampled with replacement. If subject $i$ is selected $c_{bi}$ times, all of its curves are retained with weight $c_{bi}/(K m_i)$. Prediction calibration keeps one supremum statistic per possible future curve; it does not maximize jointly over the complete observed sample.
When curves are independent and identically distributed, the function argument iid in band() should be set to TRUE.
For this example, consider smooth periodic curves on a common grid.
library(funbootband) set.seed(1) T <- 101L n <- 30L x <- seq(0, 1, length.out = T) mu_true <- 0.7 * sin(2 * pi * x) - 0.2 * cos(4 * pi * x) generate_iid_curve <- function() { mu_true + rnorm(1, sd = 0.35) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.30) * sin(2 * pi * x) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.20) * cos(2 * pi * x) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.15) * sin(4 * pi * x) } Y <- replicate(n, generate_iid_curve())
Simultaneous prediction and confidence bands are then computed by setting the type argument to
either prediction or confidence:
# Fit prediction and confidence bands fit_pred <- band(Y, type = "prediction", alpha = 0.10, iid = TRUE, B = B_demo, k.coef = k.coef_demo) fit_conf <- band(Y, type = "confidence", alpha = 0.10, iid = TRUE, B = B_demo, k.coef = k.coef_demo)
When plotting the bands alongside the original curves, we see that the shaded region is calibrated to contain entire curves with probability (1-\alpha) (simultaneous coverage).
ylim <- range(c(Y, fit_pred$lower, fit_pred$upper), finite = TRUE) plot(x, fit_pred$mean, type = "n", ylim = ylim, xlab = "Normalized time", ylab = "Value", main = "Simultaneous bands (i.i.d.)") matlines(x, Y, col = grDevices::adjustcolor("gray40", 0.25), lty = 1) polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(fit_pred$lower, rev(fit_pred$upper)), col = grDevices::adjustcolor("steelblue", alpha.f = 0.25), border = NA) polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(fit_conf$lower, rev(fit_conf$upper)), col = grDevices::adjustcolor("darkorange", alpha.f = 0.30), border = NA) lines(x, fit_pred$mean, lwd = 2) lines(x, mu_true, col = "red", lwd = 2, lty = 2)
When the i.i.d. assumption is violated, iid needs to be set to FALSE. band() will then
automatically detect the cluster structure from the column names. Optionally, an
integer/factor vector of length ncol(data) giving a cluster id for each curve
can be used.
The clustered case is illustrated using a design where each subject contributes repeated curves. The estimand first samples a subject uniformly from the subject population and then samples one curve from that subject. Consequently, subjects receive equal weight even when they contribute different numbers of curves.
library(funbootband) set.seed(2) K_subject <- 12L m <- rep(c(2L, 3L, 4L), length.out = K_subject) id <- rep(seq_len(K_subject), m) subject_effect <- sapply(seq_len(K_subject), function(i) { rnorm(1, sd = 0.35) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.30) * sin(2 * pi * x) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.20) * cos(2 * pi * x) }) within_subject_effect <- function() { rnorm(1, sd = 0.18) * sin(4 * pi * x) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.12) * cos(4 * pi * x) } Y <- sapply(seq_along(id), function(j) { mu_true + subject_effect[, id[j]] + within_subject_effect() }) trial <- ave(id, id, FUN = seq_along) colnames(Y) <- paste0("subject", id, "_trial", trial) # Fit prediction and confidence bands fit_pred <- band(Y, type = "prediction", alpha = 0.10, iid = FALSE, id = id, B = B_demo, k.coef = k.coef_demo) fit_conf <- band(Y, type = "confidence", alpha = 0.10, iid = FALSE, id = id, B = B_demo, k.coef = k.coef_demo)
Important: When iid = FALSE, the bootstrap samples subjects with
replacement and carries all observed curves of each selected subject intact.
There is no second-stage resampling of individual curves in this revision. If a
subject is selected more than once, its entire set of curves is copied more than
once. The fitted mean is the equally weighted average of subject-specific mean
curves, and prediction is calibrated for one curve from a new subject using
equal-subject, equal-within-subject empirical weights.
The prediction target and resampling unit are recorded explicitly:
fit_pred$meta[c("target", "weighting", "bootstrap_unit", "n_clusters")]
This interpretation assumes that subjects are independent draws from the population and that the observed repeats are exchangeable representatives of a curve from their subject. It is a marginal population prediction band: it does not condition on data already observed for a particular subject and does not promise joint coverage of several future curves. At least two subjects and some within-subject replication are required; reliable tail calibration will usually require substantially more than the formal minimum.
Finally, the target inherits the preprocessing step: it is a new curve in the
same finite-Fourier representation used to reconstruct the observed curves.
Coverage of raw high-frequency measurement noise is not automatically implied
when that variation is removed by the chosen k.coef.
ylim <- range(c(Y, fit_pred$lower, fit_pred$upper), finite = TRUE) plot(x, fit_pred$mean, type = "n", ylim = ylim, xlab = "Normalized time", ylab = "Value", main = "Simultaneous bands (clustered)") matlines(x, Y, col = grDevices::adjustcolor("gray40", 0.20), lty = 1) polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(fit_pred$lower, rev(fit_pred$upper)), col = grDevices::adjustcolor("steelblue", alpha.f = 0.25), border = NA) polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(fit_conf$lower, rev(fit_conf$upper)), col = grDevices::adjustcolor("darkorange", alpha.f = 0.30), border = NA) lines(x, fit_pred$mean, lwd = 2) lines(x, mu_true, col = "red", lwd = 2, lty = 2)
The following optional check generates one curve from each of many independent new subjects and estimates conditional simultaneous coverage of the fitted prediction band. It is skipped during CRAN checks and is illustrative rather than a replacement for an outer-loop simulation study.
generate_new_subject_curve <- function() { new_subject_effect <- rnorm(1, sd = 0.35) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.30) * sin(2 * pi * x) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.20) * cos(2 * pi * x) new_curve_effect <- rnorm(1, sd = 0.18) * sin(4 * pi * x) + rnorm(1, sd = 0.12) * cos(4 * pi * x) mu_true + new_subject_effect + new_curve_effect } future_curves <- replicate(500L, generate_new_subject_curve()) covered <- apply(future_curves, 2L, function(curve) { all(curve >= fit_pred$lower & curve <= fit_pred$upper) }) mean(covered)
k.coef (Fourier harmonics)k.coef controls the number of sine/cosine harmonics (plus intercept) used to
represent each curve before bootstrapping.
k.coef to the maximum meaningful value
on a length-T periodic grid. If a larger value is supplied, it is reduced accordingly.k.coef that adequately reconstructs your curves.Heuristic for selecting k.coef
The appropriate value of k.coef depends on both the grid length T and the smoothness of the curves:
T) can support higher k.coef values.As a rule of thumb, increase k.coef only as far as necessary. Very high values mainly fit high-frequency noise, increase runtime, and may lead to numerical instability near the Nyquist limit.
One simple way to inspect the effect of k.coef is to evaluate the reconstruction error (e.g., mean squared error, MSE) for different choices of k.coef:
# MSE vs k.coef for the i.i.d. example (uses Y from above) fourier_basis <- function(T, K) { t <- 0:(T - 1L) denom <- T - 1L if (K == 0L) return(cbind(1)) cbind( 1, sapply(1:K, function(k) cos(2*pi*k*t/denom)), sapply(1:K, function(k) sin(2*pi*k*t/denom)) ) } reconstruct <- function(B, Y) { coef <- qr.coef(qr(B), Y) # solve for all curves at once B %*% coef } mse <- function(A, B) mean((A - B)^2) Ks <- c(10L, 20L, 30L, 40L, 50L, 60L, 70L, 80L, 90L, 99L) T <- nrow(Y) tab <- do.call(rbind, lapply(Ks, function(K){ B <- fourier_basis(T, K) Yhat <- reconstruct(B, Y) data.frame(k.coef = K, mse = mse(Y, Yhat), pve = 100 * (1 - sum((Y - Yhat)^2) / sum((Y - mean(Y))^2))) })) row.names(tab) <- NULL print(tab) # Plot op <- par(mar = c(4,4,2,1)) plot(tab$k.coef, tab$mse, type = "b", xlab = "k.coef", ylab = "MSE", main = "Fourier reconstruction error vs. k.coef")
Recommendation
If your curves are smooth and runtime is not a concern, moderately large k.coef values (e.g., 20–50 for dense grids) are often a good choice. For noisy data or when computation time matters, examine how the reconstruction error (or resulting band limits) changes with k.coef and select the smallest value beyond which improvements become negligible. Recomputing the bands for a few candidate values can also help confirm that results have converged.
B (bootstrap replicates)The argument B controls the number of bootstrap replications.
B generally yields tighter and more stable bands, as quantile estimates become more precise.B can be used to reduce runtime. For final inference, rerun with a sufficiently large B to ensure convergence of the band limits.band(data, type = c("prediction","confidence"), alpha = 0.05, iid = TRUE, id = NULL, B = 1000L, k.coef = 50L)
T × n (rows: time points; cols: curves). A numeric
data.frame is accepted."prediction" (future curve coverage) or "confidence" (mean).0.05 gives 95% bands.iid = FALSE and supply id (length n) for clusters,
or allow inference from column-name prefixes.50; clamped to a grid-specific max).Return value. A list with numeric vectors lower, mean, upper (length
T) and meta. The metadata records the estimand, weighting convention,
bootstrap unit, curve representation, and cluster sizes where applicable.
Lenhoff, M. W., Santner, T. J., Otis, J. C., Peterson, M. G., Williams, B. J., & Backus, S. I. (1999).
Bootstrap prediction and confidence bands: a superior statistical method for analysis of gait data.
Gait & Posture, 9(1), 10–17.
Koska, D., Oriwol, D., & Maiwald, C. (2023).
Comparison of statistical models for characterizing continuous differences between two biomechanical measurement systems.
Journal of Biomechanics, 149, 111506.
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