oves | R Documentation |
Function calculates the probability for the occurrence part of vector state space model. This is needed in order to forecast intermittent demand using other functions.
oves(data, occurrence = c("logistic", "none", "fixed"), ic = c("AICc", "AIC", "BIC", "BICc"), h = 10, holdout = FALSE, probability = c("dependent", "independent"), model = "ANN", persistence = NULL, transition = NULL, phi = NULL, initial = NULL, initialSeason = NULL, xreg = NULL, ...)
data |
The matrix with data, where series are in columns and observations are in rows. |
occurrence |
Type of method used in probability estimation. Can be
|
ic |
Information criteria to use in case of model selection. |
h |
Forecast horizon. |
holdout |
If |
probability |
Type of probability assumed in the model. If
|
model |
Type of ETS model used for the estimation. Normally this should
be either |
persistence |
Persistence matrix type. If |
transition |
Transition matrix type. If |
phi |
Damping parameter type. If |
initial |
Initial vector type. If |
initialSeason |
Type of the initial vector of seasonal components.
If |
xreg |
Vector of matrix of exogenous variables, explaining some parts of occurrence variable (probability). |
... |
Other parameters. This is not needed for now. |
The function estimates probability of demand occurrence, using one of the VES state-space models.
The object of class "oves" is returned. It contains following list of values:
model
- the type of the estimated ETS model;
fitted
- fitted values of the constructed model;
forecast
- forecast for h
observations ahead;
states
- values of states (currently level only);
variance
- conditional variance of the forecast;
logLik
- likelihood value for the model
nParam
- number of parameters used in the model;
residuals
- residuals of the model;
data
- actual values of probabilities (zeros and ones).
persistence
- the vector of smoothing parameters;
initial
- initial values of the state vector;
initialSeason
- the matrix of initials seasonal states;
occurrence
- type of occurrence model used;
probability
- type of probability used;
issModel
- intermittent state-space model used for
calculations. Useful only in the case of occurrence="l"
and
probability="d"
.
Ivan Svetunkov, ivan@svetunkov.ru
oes, ves
Y <- cbind(c(rpois(25,0.1),rpois(25,0.5),rpois(25,1),rpois(25,5)), c(rpois(25,0.1),rpois(25,0.5),rpois(25,1),rpois(25,5))) oves(Y, occurrence="l") oves(Y, occurrence="l", probability="i")
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