estimate_slopes: Estimate Marginal Effects

In modelbased: Estimation of Model-Based Predictions, Contrasts and Means

Estimate Marginal Effects

Description

Estimate the slopes (i.e., the coefficient) of a predictor over or within different factor levels, or alongside a numeric variable. In other words, to assess the effect of a predictor at specific configurations data. It corresponds to the derivative and can be useful to understand where a predictor has a significant role when interactions or non-linear relationships are present.

Other related functions based on marginal estimations includes estimate_contrasts() and estimate_means().

See the Details section below, and don't forget to also check out the Vignettes and README examples for various examples, tutorials and use cases.

Usage

estimate_slopes(
  model,
  trend = NULL,
  by = NULL,
  predict = NULL,
  ci = 0.95,
  estimate = NULL,
  transform = NULL,
  p_adjust = "none",
  keep_iterations = FALSE,
  backend = NULL,
  verbose = TRUE,
  ...
)

Arguments

model	A statistical model.
trend	A character indicating the name of the variable for which to compute the slopes. To get marginal effects at specific values, use trend="<variable>" along with the by argument, e.g. by="<variable>=c(1, 3, 5)", or a combination of by and length, for instance, ⁠by="<variable>", length=30⁠. To calculate average marginal effects over a range of values, use trend="<variable>=seq(1, 3, 0.1)" (or similar) and omit the variable provided in trend from the by argument.
by	The (focal) predictor variable(s) at which to evaluate the desired effect / mean / contrasts. Other predictors of the model that are not included here will be collapsed and "averaged" over (the effect will be estimated across them). by can be a character (vector) naming the focal predictors, optionally including representative values or levels at which focal predictors are evaluated (e.g., by = "x = c(1, 2)"). When estimate is not "average", the by argument is used to create a "reference grid" or "data grid" with representative values for the focal predictors. In this case, by can also be list of named elements. See details in insight::get_datagrid() to learn more about how to create data grids for predictors of interest.
predict	Is passed to the type argument in emmeans::emmeans() (when backend = "emmeans") or in marginaleffects::avg_predictions() (when backend = "marginaleffects"). Valid options for predict are: backend = "marginaleffects": predict can be "response", "link", "inverse_link" or any valid type option supported by model's class predict() method (e.g., for zero-inflation models from package glmmTMB, you can choose predict = "zprob" or predict = "conditional" etc., see glmmTMB::predict.glmmTMB). By default, when predict = NULL, the most appropriate transformation is selected, which usually returns predictions or contrasts on the response-scale. The "inverse_link" is a special option, comparable to marginaleffects' invlink(link) option. It will calculate predictions on the link scale and then back-transform to the response scale. backend = "emmeans": predict can be "response", "link", "mu", "unlink", or "log". If predict = NULL (default), the most appropriate transformation is selected (which usually is "response"). See also this vignette. See also section Predictions on different scales.
ci	Confidence Interval (CI) level. Default to 0.95 (⁠95%⁠).
estimate	The estimate argument determines how predictions are averaged ("marginalized") over variables not specified in by or contrast (non-focal predictors). It controls whether predictions represent a "typical" individual, an "average" individual from the sample, or an "average" individual from a broader population. "typical" (Default): Calculates predictions for a balanced data grid representing all combinations of focal predictor levels (specified in by). For non-focal numeric predictors, it uses the mean; for non-focal categorical predictors, it marginalizes (averages) over the levels. This represents a "typical" observation based on the data grid and is useful for comparing groups. It answers: "What would the average outcome be for a 'typical' observation?". This is the default approach when estimating marginal means using the emmeans package. "average": Calculates predictions for each observation in the sample and then averages these predictions within each group defined by the focal predictors. This reflects the sample's actual distribution of non-focal predictors, not a balanced grid. It answers: "What is the predicted value for an average observation in my data?" "population": "Clones" each observation, creating copies with all possible combinations of focal predictor levels. It then averages the predictions across these "counterfactual" observations (non-observed permutations) within each group. This extrapolates to a hypothetical broader population, considering "what if" scenarios. It answers: "What is the predicted response for the 'average' observation in a broader possible target population?" This approach entails more assumptions about the likelihood of different combinations, but can be more apt to generalize. This is also the option that should be used for G-computation (causal inference, see Chatton and Rohrer 2024). "counterfactual" is an alias for "population". You can set a default option for the estimate argument via options(), e.g. options(modelbased_estimate = "average"). Note following limitations: When you set estimate to "average", it calculates the average based only on the data points that actually exist. This is in particular important for two or more focal predictors, because it doesn't generate a complete grid of all theoretical combinations of predictor values. Consequently, the output may not include all the values. Filtering the output at values of continuous predictors, e.g. by = "x=1:5", in combination with estimate = "average" may result in returning an empty data frame because of what was described above. In such case, you can use estimate = "typical" or use the newdata argument to provide a data grid of predictor values at which to evaluate predictions. estimate = "population" is not available for estimate_slopes().
transform	A function applied to predictions and confidence intervals to (back-) transform results, which can be useful in case the regression model has a transformed response variable (e.g., lm(log(y) ~ x)). For Bayesian models, this function is applied to individual draws from the posterior distribution, before computing summaries. Can also be TRUE, in which case insight::get_transformation() is called to determine the appropriate transformation-function. Note that no standard errors are returned when transformations are applied.
p_adjust	The p-values adjustment method for frequentist multiple comparisons. For estimate_slopes(), multiple comparison only occurs for Johnson-Neyman intervals, i.e. in case of interactions with two numeric predictors (one specified in trend, one in by). In this case, the "esarey" or "sup-t" options are recommended, but p_adjust can also be one of "none" (default), "hochberg", "hommel", "bonferroni", "BH", "BY", "fdr", "tukey", "sidak", or "holm". "sup-t" computes simultaneous confidence bands, also called sup-t confidence band (Montiel Olea & Plagborg-Møller, 2019).
keep_iterations	If TRUE, will keep all iterations (draws) of bootstrapped or Bayesian models. They will be added as additional columns named iter_1, iter_2, and so on. If keep_iterations is a positive number, only as many columns as indicated in keep_iterations will be added to the output. You can reshape them to a long format by running bayestestR::reshape_iterations().
backend	Whether to use "marginaleffects" (default) or "emmeans" as a backend. Results are usually very similar. The major difference will be found for mixed models, where backend = "marginaleffects" will also average across random effects levels, producing "marginal predictions" (instead of "conditional predictions", see Heiss 2022). Another difference is that backend = "marginaleffects" will be slower than backend = "emmeans". For most models, this difference is negligible. However, in particular complex models or large data sets fitted with glmmTMB can be significantly slower. You can set a default backend via options(), e.g. use options(modelbased_backend = "emmeans") to use the emmeans package or options(modelbased_backend = "marginaleffects") to set marginaleffects as default backend.
verbose	Use FALSE to silence messages and warnings.
...	Other arguments passed, for instance, to insight::get_datagrid(), to functions from the emmeans or marginaleffects package, or to process Bayesian models via bayestestR::describe_posterior(). Examples: insight::get_datagrid(): Argument such as length, digits or range can be used to control the (number of) representative values. For integer variables, protect_integers modulates whether these should also be treated as numerics, i.e. values can have fractions or not. marginaleffects: Internally used functions are avg_predictions() for means and contrasts, and avg_slope() for slopes. Therefore, arguments for instance like vcov, equivalence, df, slope, hypothesis or even newdata can be passed to those functions. A weights argument is passed to the wts argument in avg_predictions() or avg_slopes(), however, weights can only be applied when estimate is "average" or "population" (i.e. for those marginalization options that do not use data grids). Other arguments, such as re.form or allow.new.levels, may be passed to predict() (which is internally used by marginaleffects) if supported by that model class. emmeans: Internally used functions are emmeans() and emtrends(). Additional arguments can be passed to these functions. Bayesian models: For Bayesian models, parameters are cleaned using describe_posterior(), thus, arguments like, for example, centrality, rope_range, or test are passed to that function. Especially for estimate_contrasts() with integer focal predictors, for which contrasts should be calculated, use argument integer_as_continuous to set the maximum number of unique values in an integer predictor to treat that predictor as "discrete integer" or as numeric. For the first case, contrasts are calculated between values of the predictor, for the latter, contrasts of slopes are calculated. If the integer has more than integer_as_continuous unique values, it is treated as numeric. Defaults to 5. Set to TRUE to always treat integer predictors as continuous. For count regression models that use an offset term, use ⁠offset = <value>⁠ to fix the offset at a specific value. Or use estimate = "average", to average predictions over the distribution of the offset (if appropriate).

Details

The estimate_slopes(), estimate_means() and estimate_contrasts() functions are forming a group, as they are all based on marginal estimations (estimations based on a model). All three are built on the emmeans or marginaleffects package (depending on the backend argument), so reading its documentation (for instance emmeans::emmeans(), emmeans::emtrends() or this website) is recommended to understand the idea behind these types of procedures.

• Model-based predictions is the basis for all that follows. Indeed, the first thing to understand is how models can be used to make predictions (see estimate_relation()). This corresponds to the predicted response (or "outcome variable") given specific predictor values of the predictors (i.e., given a specific data configuration). This is why the concept of the reference grid is so important for direct predictions.

• Marginal "means", obtained via estimate_means(), are an extension of such predictions, allowing to "average" (collapse) some of the predictors, to obtain the average response value at a specific predictors configuration. This is typically used when some of the predictors of interest are factors. Indeed, the parameters of the model will usually give you the intercept value and then the "effect" of each factor level (how different it is from the intercept). Marginal means can be used to directly give you the mean value of the response variable at all the levels of a factor. Moreover, it can also be used to control, or average over predictors, which is useful in the case of multiple predictors with or without interactions.

• Marginal contrasts, obtained via estimate_contrasts(), are themselves at extension of marginal means, in that they allow to investigate the difference (i.e., the contrast) between the marginal means. This is, again, often used to get all pairwise differences between all levels of a factor. It works also for continuous predictors, for instance one could also be interested in whether the difference at two extremes of a continuous predictor is significant.

• Finally, marginal effects, obtained via estimate_slopes(), are different in that their focus is not values on the response variable, but the model's parameters. The idea is to assess the effect of a predictor at a specific configuration of the other predictors. This is relevant in the case of interactions or non-linear relationships, when the effect of a predictor variable changes depending on the other predictors. Moreover, these effects can also be "averaged" over other predictors, to get for instance the "general trend" of a predictor over different factor levels.

Example: Let's imagine the following model lm(y ~ condition * x) where condition is a factor with 3 levels A, B and C and x a continuous variable (like age for example). One idea is to see how this model performs, and compare the actual response y to the one predicted by the model (using estimate_expectation()). Another idea is evaluate the average mean at each of the condition's levels (using estimate_means()), which can be useful to visualize them. Another possibility is to evaluate the difference between these levels (using estimate_contrasts()). Finally, one could also estimate the effect of x averaged over all conditions, or instead within each condition (using estimate_slopes()).

Value

A data.frame of class estimate_slopes.

Predictions and contrasts at meaningful values (data grids)

To define representative values for focal predictors (specified in by, contrast, and trend), you can use several methods. These values are internally generated by insight::get_datagrid(), so consult its documentation for more details.

• You can directly specify values as strings or lists for by, contrast, and trend.

  • For numeric focal predictors, use examples like by = "gear = c(4, 8)", by = list(gear = c(4, 8)) or by = "gear = 5:10"

  • For factor or character predictors, use by = "Species = c('setosa', 'virginica')" or by = list(Species = c('setosa', 'virginica'))

• You can use "shortcuts" within square brackets, such as by = "Sepal.Width = [sd]" or by = "Sepal.Width = [fivenum]"

• For numeric focal predictors, if no representative values are specified (i.e., by = "gear" and not by = "gear = c(4, 8)"), length and range control the number and type of representative values for the focal predictors:

  • length determines how many equally spaced values are generated.

  • range specifies the type of values, like "range" or "sd".

  • length and range apply to all numeric focal predictors.

  • If you have multiple numeric predictors, length and range can accept multiple elements, one for each predictor (see 'Examples').

• For integer variables, only values that appear in the data will be included in the data grid, independent from the length argument. This behaviour can be changed by setting protect_integers = FALSE, which will then treat integer variables as numerics (and possibly produce fractions).

See also this vignette for some examples.

References

Montiel Olea, J. L., and Plagborg-Møller, M. (2019). Simultaneous confidence bands: Theory, implementation, and an application to SVARs. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 34(1), 1–17. \Sexpr[results=rd]{tools:::Rd_expr_doi("10.1002/jae.2656")}

Examples

library(ggplot2)
# Get an idea of the data
ggplot(iris, aes(x = Petal.Length, y = Sepal.Width)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = Species)) +
  geom_smooth(color = "black", se = FALSE) +
  geom_smooth(aes(color = Species), linetype = "dotted", se = FALSE) +
  geom_smooth(aes(color = Species), method = "lm", se = FALSE)

# Model it
model <- lm(Sepal.Width ~ Species * Petal.Length, data = iris)
# Compute the marginal effect of Petal.Length at each level of Species
slopes <- estimate_slopes(model, trend = "Petal.Length", by = "Species")
slopes

# What is the *average* slope of Petal.Length? This can be calculated by
# taking the average of the slopes across all Species, using `comparison`.
# We pass a function to `comparison` that calculates the mean of the slopes.
estimate_slopes(
  model,
  trend = "Petal.Length",
  by = "Species",
  comparison = ~I(mean(x))
)

## Not run: 
# Plot it
plot(slopes)
standardize(slopes)

model <- mgcv::gam(Sepal.Width ~ s(Petal.Length), data = iris)
slopes <- estimate_slopes(model, by = "Petal.Length", length = 50)
summary(slopes)
plot(slopes)

model <- mgcv::gam(Sepal.Width ~ s(Petal.Length, by = Species), data = iris)
slopes <- estimate_slopes(model,
  trend = "Petal.Length",
  by = c("Petal.Length", "Species"), length = 20
)
summary(slopes)
plot(slopes)

# marginal effects, grouped by Species, at different values of Petal.Length
estimate_slopes(model,
  trend = "Petal.Length",
  by = c("Petal.Length", "Species"), length = 10
)

# marginal effects at different values of Petal.Length
estimate_slopes(model, trend = "Petal.Length", by = "Petal.Length", length = 10)

# marginal effects at very specific values of Petal.Length
estimate_slopes(model, trend = "Petal.Length", by = "Petal.Length=c(1, 3, 5)")

# average marginal effects of Petal.Length,
# just for the trend within a certain range
estimate_slopes(model, trend = "Petal.Length=seq(2, 4, 0.01)")

## End(Not run)


## Not run: 
# marginal effects with different `estimate` options
data(penguins)
penguins$long_bill <- factor(datawizard::categorize(penguins$bill_len), labels = c("short", "long"))
m <- glm(long_bill ~ sex + species + island * bill_dep, data = penguins, family = "binomial")

# the emmeans default
estimate_slopes(m, "bill_dep", by = "island")
emmeans::emtrends(m, "island", var = "bill_dep", regrid = "response")

# the marginaleffects default
estimate_slopes(m, "bill_dep", by = "island", estimate = "average")
marginaleffects::avg_slopes(m, variables = "bill_dep", by = "island")

## End(Not run)

modelbased documentation built on Aug. 30, 2025, 5:07 p.m.