Calculates and depicts probabilistic longterm effects in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to depict meaningful and easytointerpret quantities of interest with the requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for researchers to interpret short and longterm effects of explanatory variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important implications for the correct interpretation of these models.
Package details 


Author  Christopher Gandrud [aut, cre], Laron K. Williams [aut] 
Maintainer  Christopher Gandrud <[email protected]> 
License  GPL (>= 3) 
Version  1.0 
URL  https://CRAN.Rproject.org/package=pltesim 
Package repository  View on CRAN 
Installation 
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