tsprofile: Model Simulation Based Profiling

In tsissm: Linear Innovations State Space Unobserved Components Model

Model Simulation Based Profiling

Description

Profiling of model dynamics using simulation/estimation/prediction.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'tsissm.estimate'
tsprofile(
  object,
  h = 1,
  nsim = 100,
  seed = NULL,
  solver = "nloptr",
  control = NULL,
  trace = FALSE,
  ...
)

Arguments

object	an object of class “tsissm.estimate”.
h	the forecast horizon on which to evaluate performance metrics.
nsim	the number of paths to generate.
seed	an object specifying if and how the random number generator should be initialized. See the simulate documentation for more details.
solver	only “nlortr” currently available.
control	optional control parameters. The user is expected to have set up appropriate handlers for this using the handlers function from the “progressr” package.
trace	whether to show the progress bar and additionally output verbose messages.
...	not currently used.

Details

The function profiles an estimated model by simulating and then estimating multiple paths from the assumed DGP while leaving h values out for prediction evaluation. Each simulated path is equal to the size of the original dataset plus h additional values, and initialized with the initial state vector from the model. The resulting output contains the distribution of the MAPE, percent bias (BIAS) and mean squared log relative error (MSLRE) per horizon h. Since these matrices are of class “tsmodel.distribution” they can be readily plotted with the special purpose “plot” function for this class from the “tsmethods” package. Additionally, a data.table matrix is also returned with the distribution of the coefficients from each path estimation.

Value

An object of class “tsissm.profile”.

Note

The function can use parallel functionality as long as the user has set up a plan using the future package. The simulated states are checked for positivity and any paths which have negative values are excluded. If more than half of the paths have negative values then an error is raised and the function will stop.

tsissm documentation built on Aug. 8, 2025, 6:08 p.m.