FPEMcountry: fpemlocal

User stories

As a UNPD analyst, I want to be able to model past, current and projected use of contraception and unmet need, total demand, demand satisfied, demand satisfied by modern methods, in all countries, and country aggregates, so that I may monitor trends, report on them, and develop new methodology.

I want to run the global model to generate estimates for unmarried, married, and all women so that they can be published on our website and used for SDG reporting.
I want to be able to update input data, re-run the global model, so that I can publish updated results to our website and used for SDG reporting in an annual cycle.
I want to be able to do the above two steps for different age groups so that I can produce estimates and projections for different age groups (by also supplying required input data).
I want to be able to select the time period of analysis so that I can produce estimates and projections for custom time periods of interest.
I want to be able to compare results for arbitrary pairs and triples of years probabilistically so that I can summarize changes and changes-in-changes that have occured, or are projected to occur, in key indicators.
I want the package to store "default" versions of input files that are updated infrequently (e.g. country classifications) so that I don't have to manage them myself and risk using the wrong ones.
I want to review the uncertainty around my estimates and projections (e.g. in the form of posterior marginal quantiles) so that I know whether they are reliable/robust.
I want to store estimates, projections so that I can return to study them at a later date.
I want to do quick trial runs so that I can check the impact of changes to input data and plan releases and reports.
I want to store intermediate outputs, such as MCMC chains, so that I can use them to produce customized summaries that may be required from time-to-time, or for model development purposes.
I want to be able to modify model inputs, such as prevalence data, number of women, prior parameters, and compare projections so that I can see the impact of different assumptions (e.g. conduct sensitivity analysis).
I want to be able to produce customized versions of figures and tables so that I can include them in reports and presentations.
I want to be able to produce maps so that I can visualize country differences in key indicators on a map.
I want to be able to run out-of-sample validations for global models.
I want to be able to specify custom country aggregations and get all results for these new aggregations.

I want to keep up-to-date with model developments from collaborators so that I can assess any impact revisions might have on our work programme and plan for any changes needed.
I want to understand the structure of the package code so that I can ensure any methodological development I do is compatible and consistent with it.

As a researcher, I want to run a variety of multivariate time-series models so that I can compare their performance.

I want to provide measurements of times-series for multiple units and metrics so that their changes can be modeled.
I want to provide covariates and factors so that I can describe the similarity between separate units and time-points.
I want to install JAGS and Stan models so that I can analyze the evolution of metrics for multiple units.
I want to define interfaces to models so that for a given task (e.g. national models of unmarried women) there is an unambiguous set of requirements for permissible model inputs and required model outputs.
I want to create standard summaries of estimated time-series so that a variety of models can feed into pre-defined analyses.
I want to create standard visualizations so that I can apply them to outputs of multiple models.
I want to create standard aggregates so that I can apply them to outputs of multiple models and create reports at the expected level of detail.

I want to create modular tasks so that new students and post-docs can learn the package in stages.
I want to separate model building from visualization so that researchers with subject-area experience can suggest or implement post-processing without understanding pre-processing or model-building steps.
I want to create data descriptions independent of R code so that subject-area experts without R experience can produce compatible data.

As a country analyst, I want to understand current and projected use of contraception in my country so that I may inform family planning policy.

I want to review recent survey statistics so that I know the current state of contraceptive use.
I want to project contraceptive use into the future so that I can see what progress my country will make under current programmes.
I want to be able to perform quick “trial” runs so that I can explore different hypotheses.
I want to specify the period of my projections so that I can focus on the time-frames that my country wishes to prioritize.
I want to review the results of my projections so that I can determine if sufficient progress will be made.
I want to review the uncertainty around my projections so that I know whether they are reliable/robust.
I want to be able to add custom data so that I can create projections based on the latest survey data, address erroneous data or perform “what if…” analysis.
I want to store projections so that I can return to study them at a later date.
I want to compare projections so that I can see the impact of different assumptions (e.g. conduct sensitivity analysis).