knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE) library("hyper2") library("pracma") library("magrittr")
knitr::include_graphics(system.file("help/figures/hyper2.png", package = "hyper2"))
This follows on from very_simplified_likelihood.Rmd
. Consider some
form of comparison between a competitor of Bradley-Terry strength $a$
and $n$ competitors each of strength $b$; we require $a+b=1$. NB we
have $n+1$ competitors in total, 1 of strength $a$ and $n$ of strength
$b$. An observation is indexed by $r$, the number of $b$ clones
finishing ahead of $a$, so $0\leqslant r\leqslant n$. The initial
field strength is $a+nb=1+b(n-1)$.
Suppose we split the $n+1$ competitors into two teams. The team with our bro has $r+1$ members and the other one has size $n-r$ members. Then, using standard notation
\begin{equation} \frac{a+rb;(n-r)b}{a+nb} \end{equation}
Let us suppose that the teams are of equal size: $1+r=n-r=m$, say:
\begin{equation}= \frac{a+(m-1)b;mb}{a+(2m-1)b}=\frac{mb (a-b); mb}{2mb+(a-b)}=\frac{(m-2)b+1;mb}{(2m-2)b+1} \end{equation}
Let's try $m=15$:
m <- 15 a <- seq(from=0,to=1,by=0.001) b <- 1-a L_win <- ((m-2)*b+1)/((2*m-2)*b+1) L_lose<- (m*b) /((2*m-2)*b+1) plot(a,L_win ,type='b',ylim=0:1,main="Focal competitor's team wins") plot(a,L_lose,type='b',ylim=0:1,main="Focal competitor's team loses") S_win <- log(L_win) S_win <- S_win-max(S_win) S_lose <- log(L_lose) S_lose <- S_lose-max(S_lose) plot(a,S_win,type='b',main="Win") plot(a,S_lose,type='b',main="Lose") logodds <- log(a/(1-a)) plot(logodds,S_win,main="win") plot(logodds,S_lose,main="lose")
Now in week 4 Laura came in the second team of four (of four members each). I get the teams's strengths are $\beta=4b$ and $\alpha=3b+a=1+2b$, so
\begin{eqnarray} L &=& \frac{\alpha}{3\alpha+\beta}\cdot\frac{\beta}{2\alpha+\beta}\ &=& \frac{4b}{12b + (1+2b)}\cdot\frac{1+2b}{8b+(1+2b)}\ &=& \frac{4b}{1+14b}\cdot\frac{1+2b}{1+10b} \end{eqnarray}
a <- seq(from=0,to=1,by=0.001) f <- function(a){ b <- 1-a 4*b*(1+2*b)/(1+14*b)/(1+10*b) } L <- f(a) L <- L/max(L,na.rm=TRUE) plot(a, L,type='b') plot(a, log(L),type='b',ylim=c(-5,0)) abline(h= -2)
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