StochasticCIB: StochasticCIB

StochasticCIBR Documentation

StochasticCIB

Description

StochasticCIB is an R package containing a number of function designed to facilitate Cross-Impact Balance analysis. A Brief introduction to CIB analysis is given here: CIBintroduction.

For a detailed discussion of Cross Impact Balance please see the references below.

Please be warned, Cross Impact Balance is nothing more than a mathematical framework for exploring hypothetical scenarios. It is not a crystal ball, and it would be unwise to imagine that the presence of numbers correspond with either certainty or precision. The numbers merely allow us to mechanise the process of considering hypothetical situation, and allow us to estimate where we should focus our attention.

Details

Package: StochasticCIB
Type: Package
Version: 0.8
Date: 2019-23-06
License: GPL 2

Note

To get started use InputCibBanner to describe the system you are studying. Next MakeScoreMatrix will find the relative scores of each world state from each other world state, and you'll be able to use one of the many TransitionCalculators to determine the transition probabilities of your system. Use, CIBforecast will calculate the long term forecast. Finally CIBgraph will visualize your results; some tweaking may be required.

To see an Example CIB matrix, use ExampleCIBdata.

Author(s)

Alastair Jamieson-Lane. <aja107@math.ubc.ca>

References

Markov Models of Social Change (Part 1)- Azimuth Forum https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/02/24/markov-models-of-social-change-part-1/

Markov Models of Social Change (Part 2)- Azimuth Forum https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/03/05/markov-models-of-social-change-part-2/

Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Cross-impact balances: a system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73 (2006), 334–361.


alastair-JL/StochasticCIB documentation built on July 27, 2023, 1:12 a.m.