In chrislittleboy/deforecast: What the Package Does in One 'Title Case' Line

knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = FALSE)
library(bookdown)
library(tidyverse)
library(knitr)
library(kableExtra)
library(sf)
library(raster)

Introduction

Forests are key to a healthy planet. They store carbon, protect biodiversity, clean the air, provide food and furniture. Protecting forests is increasingly recognised as being crucial to limit the negative impacts of climate change. So much so that the nations of the world agreed to end deforestation by 2030.

In this article we predict what will happen to global forests in the coming years using a new simulation model. This over 16,000 protected areas and the surrounding forests, including x in the amazon, y in siberia, z in Indonesia. In total, this includes over a% of the world's forest cover. We find that current deforestation is x%. Without policy changes, forests will have shrunk by y% in 2030 and will continue doing so. And with policy changes, an x% increase in the area of protected forests or a y% increase in the budgets for protecting forests is crucial.

And It will take Rather than fuel the cynicism that political agreements cannot create meaningful change. We see broad political consensus as an opportunity to change the way we manage forests for the better.

Methodology

Research questions

What is a protected forest

Creating model forests

Simulating deforestation as human/environment conflict

Model calibration

Results

Historical deforestation

Model performance

Future deforestataion

Future deforestation under different policy scenarios

Discussion

Theory of forest change

Our model is underpinned by a specific theory of forest change -- that forests change over time due to incremental encroachment. There is an argument that forestry concessions -- areas of land For example, DRC. Another argument says that forest losses are increasing due to move volatile climates. Neither of these factors are inncorporated in our simulation model. Nevertheless, the relative model perform

Forest protection policy

Conclusion

chrislittleboy/deforecast documentation built on July 14, 2022, 8:36 p.m.