find.bracket: Fill out a bracket based on some criteria

In elishayer/mRchmadness: Numerical Tools for Filling Out an NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket

Fill out a bracket based on some criteria

Description

Fill out a bracket based on some criteria

Usage

find.bracket(
  bracket.empty,
  prob.matrix = NULL,
  prob.source = c("pop", "kenpom", "538"),
  pool.source = c("pop", "kenpom", "538"),
  league = c("men", "women"),
  year = current.year,
  pool.bias = NULL,
  num.candidates = 100,
  num.sims = 1000,
  criterion = c("percentile", "score", "win"),
  pool.size = 30,
  bonus.round = c(1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32),
  bonus.seed = rep(0, 16),
  bonus.combine = c("add", "multiply"),
  print.progress = TRUE,
  shiny.progress = NULL
)

Arguments

bracket.empty	a length-64 character vector giving the field of 64 teams in the tournament, in order of initial overall seeding
prob.matrix	a matrix of probabilities, with rows and columns corresponding to teams, matching the output of bradley.terry(). This probabilities are used to simulate candidate brackets and outcomes on which to evaluate the candidates. If NULL, prob.source is used.
prob.source	source from which to use round probabilities to simulate candidate brackets and outcomes — "pop": ESPN's population of picks (default), "kenpom": Ken Pomeroy's predictions (kenpom.com), or "538": predictions form fivethirtyeight.com. Ignored if prob.matrix is specified.
pool.source	source from which to use round probabilities to simulate entries of opponents in pool. Same options as prob.source.
league	which league: "men" (default) or "women", for pool.source.
year	year of tournament, used for prob.source and pool.source
pool.bias	character vector of names of teams to whom home-team bias is to be applied (must match name column of pred.pop.[league].[year]). Ignored unless pool.source is "pop" (see ?add.home.bias for details).
num.candidates	number of random brackets to try, taking the best one (default is 100)
num.sims	number of simulations over which to evaluate the candidate brackets (default is 1000)
criterion	how to choose among candidate brackets: "percentile" (default, maximize expected percentile within pool), "score" (maximize expected number of points) or "win" (maximize probabilty of winning pool).
pool.size	number of brackets in your pool (excluding yours), matters only if criterion == "win" (default is 30)
bonus.round	a length-6 vector giving the number of points awarded in your pool's scoring rules for correct picks in each round (default is 2^round)
bonus.seed	a length-16 vector giving the bonus awarded for correctly picking winner based on winner's seed (default is zero)
bonus.combine	how to combine the round bonus with the seed bonus to get the number of points awarded for each correct pick: "add" (default) or multiply
print.progress	should progress be printed to console?
shiny.progress	a shiny::Progress object used only for the Shiny app

Value

the length-63 character vector describing the filled bracket which performs best according to criterion among all num.candidates brackets tried, across num.sims simulations of a pool of pool.size with scoring rules specified by bonus.round, bonus.seed and bonus.combine

Author(s)

sspowers

Examples

find.bracket(bracket.empty = bracket.men.2018, prob.source = "538",
  pool.source = "pop", league = "men", year = 2018)

elishayer/mRchmadness documentation built on March 27, 2024, 2:11 p.m.