knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
The goal is to infer, for a known QTL position, the allelic series.
$$Y = XCa + \epsilon$$
where Y is a n by 1 vector of trait values, X is a n by 8 matrix of founder allele probabilities for a single marker, C is a 8 by l allelic series configuration matrix, and a is a l-long vector of founder allele effects.
The number of alleles, then, is $l$. $\epsilon$ is a random error term, n-long vector, with distribution:
$$\epsilon \sim N(0, \sigma^2I)$$
The observed quantities are $Y$ and marker founder allele probabilities, $X$.
Unobserved quantities are $C|l$, $l$, $a$, and $\sigma^2$.
$$p(C, l, a, \sigma^2 | y, X) \propto p(y | C, l, a, \sigma^2)\pi(C, l)\pi(a)\pi(\sigma^2) \ \propto p(y | C, l, a, \sigma^2)\pi(C| l)\pi(l) \pi(a)\pi(\sigma^2)$$
The term $p(y | C, l, a, \sigma^2)$ is the likelihood. $\pi$ specifies a prior for the argument, ie, $\pi(a)$ is the prior distribution for $a$.
We'll use a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to draw samples from the posterior distribution.
At each step in a single iteration, we condition on current values of the unknowns.
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