NEWS.md

In guga31bb/nfl4th: Functions to Calculate Optimal Fourth Down Decisions in the National Football League

nfl4th (development version)

• Stop letting roof break things
• New location for pre-computed numbers
• Re-work field goal model. Takes into account improvements in accuracy (especially on long kicks) and gives probability > 0 on kicks of over 70 yards

nfl4th 1.0.4

• Create package cache directory with tools::R_user_dir() because CRAN doesn't like rappdirs::user_cache_dir()

nfl4th 1.0.3

• Re-export xgboost models to get rid of annoying warning message
• Tweak how close to end of game it will calculate probabilities
• Required data isn't loaded directly with the package. Instead the download is triggered when necessary and cached in a local package cache. The cache can be cleared with the new function nfl4th_clear_cache(). The package resets the cache partly when loaded. This can be prevented with options(nfl4th.keep_games = TRUE).
• Update win probability model. Instead of only using nflfastR, it stacks nflfastR with another model
• Fixup cache paths.
• Remove tidyverse from Suggests

nfl4th 1.0.2

• Nothing changed. Forced update to documentation to not get kicked off CRAN

nfl4th 1.0.1

• Fix for aborted plays on punts being called going for it
• Re-categorized some plays as unknown (i.e., NA) go: False Start or defensive encroachment along with being lined up to go for it (run formation or pass formation)
• Added fast argument to load_4th_pbp() which allows for loading pre-computed go_boost rather than needing to calculate it

nfl4th 1.0.0

• Initial public release

nfl4th 0.0.0.9000

• Release as package
• Fixes with touchdowns. Instead of granting 7 points, assumes teams choose best option between PAT or 2pt and give pre-conversion attempt WP accordingly
• Fix for punt WP at the end of first half being too high
• Add logic for TD/FG decision on the last play of the first half
• Add possibility for muffed punt
• Reduce field goal chances on very long field goals

guga31bb/nfl4th documentation built on June 9, 2025, 10:57 p.m.