intrade12: Intrade Prediction Market Data

intrade12R Documentation

Intrade Prediction Market Data

Description

Data from Intrade, an online prediction market, in days leading up to the 2012 United States Presidential Election.

Usage

intrade12

Format

A data frame with 32623 rows and 8 variables:

.row

integer: row number

day

Date: date of the session

statename

character: full name of each state

PriceD

numeric: closing price (predicted vote share) of the Democratic nominee’s market

VolumeD

integer: total session trades of the Democratic Party nominee’s market

PriceR

numeric: closing price (predicted vote share) of the Republican nominee’s market

VolumeR

integer: total session trades of the Republican Party nominee’s market

state

character: abbreviation of each state

Details

See QSS Table 4.9.

References

  • Imai, Kosuke. 2017. Quantitative Social Science: An Introduction. Princeton University Press. URL.

  • David Rothschild (2009) “Forecasting elections: Comparing prediction markets, polls, and their biases.” Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 73, no. 5, pp. 895–916. doi = 10.1093/poq/nfp082


kosukeimai/qss-data documentation built on April 20, 2022, 2:26 p.m.