Donald Trump's voteshare in each U.S. state, with survey estimates from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (pre-election wave). See Meng (2018) referenced below for more details. We focus on unweighted estimates to capture the response patterns, before correcting for any imbalances through weights.
A data frame with 51 rows (all U.S. states and D.C.)
state (full name)
Donald J. Trump's voteshare, the estimand.
CCES unweighted proportion of Trump support, one estimate.
CCES unweighted proportion counting Republican undecideds as Trump voters.
Total number of votes by Trump.
Turnout in Presidential as total number of votes cast.
Validated voters intending to vote for Trump. Used as the numerator for the above CCES estimates.
Validated voters in survey sample. Used as the denominator for the above CCES estimates.
Voting Age Population in the state.
Voting Eligible Population in the state (estimate from the US Election Project).
Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/ and the United States Election Project http://www.electproject.org/2016g. Created under https://github.com/kuriwaki/poll_error.
For an explanation in the context of d.d.i., see Meng (2018) <doi:10.1214/18-AOAS1161SF>
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