arc_weather
The arc_weather
data sample contains selected meteorological records from the Toolik Field Station at Toolik Lake, Alaska, from 1988 - 2018. This data set offers opportunities to explore and wrangle time series data, visualize patterns (e.g. seasonality), and apply different forecasting methods.
Attach required packages:
library(lterdatasampler) library(tidyverse) library(tsibble) library(feasts)
Here, we highlight daily air temperature (the data sample also contains records for precipitation and wind speed) using functions from the tsibble
and feasts
R packages (both part of the fantastic tidyverts
ecosystem of "tidy tools for time series").
# Calculate monthly average of daily mean air temperature and convert to tsibble: arc_weather_ts <- arc_weather %>% mutate(yr_mo = yearmonth(date)) %>% # Make a column with just month and year from each date group_by(yr_mo) %>% # Group by year-month summarize(avg_mean_airtemp = mean(mean_airtemp, na.rm = TRUE)) %>% # Find monthly mean air temperature as_tsibble(index = yr_mo) # Convert to a tsibble (time series tibble) # Check out the first 10 lines: head(arc_weather_ts, 10)
Once the data are converted into a tsibble
in the last line above, we can use helpful functions in feasts
(like autoplot()
and gg_season()
) to explore the time series data a bit more.
# Create a line graph of monthly average of mean daily air temperatures: arc_weather_ts %>% autoplot(avg_mean_airtemp)
# Create season plot to explore seasonality: arc_weather_ts %>% gg_season(avg_mean_airtemp)
We might want to decompose the time series data to further explore components. See Chapter 3 Time series decomposition in Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos for more information on decomposing time series data.
arc_weather_ts %>% model(STL(avg_mean_airtemp)) %>% components() %>% autoplot()
We can also explore autocorrelation:
arc_weather_ts %>% ACF(avg_mean_airtemp) %>% autoplot()
Then you can move on to time series forecasting and further analysis! Have fun with the arc_weather
data sample from Arctic LTER.
Shaver, G. 2019. A multi-year DAILY weather file for the Toolik Field Station at Toolik Lake, AK starting 1988 to present. ver 4. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/ce0f300cdf87ec002909012abefd9c5c (Accessed 2020-07-04).
r knitr::spin_child(here::here("data-raw","arc_weather_data.R"))
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