README.md

In mazphilip/CausalStumps: CausalStump: A structural Gaussian process implementation for Causal Inference

CausalStump

This package fits a Gaussian process for treatment effect estimation. It is part of my MSc project in Computational Statistics and Machine Learning at UCL in London 2016/17.

This package can be installed using following command in R:

install.packages("https://github.com/mazphilip/CausalStump/raw/master/tar/CausalStump_0.2.0.tar.gz", repos = NULL, type = "source")

This package requires the R-packages Rcpp, RcppArmadillo, and mvnfast (for the sampling of the student-t posterior).

Replicate thesis results

To replicate the results in my thesis, you can find the simulation files in the test folder. You need the sim.data file of Hill (2011) that is available in the supplement material here (stable link). On an AWS c4.8xlarge instance with an Rstudio AMI (set export OMP_NUM_THREADS=2) each file takes between 4-6h. Use following package version to run the simulations:

install.packages("https://github.com/mazphilip/CausalStump/raw/master/tar/CausalStump_0.2.0.tar.gz", repos = NULL, type = "source")

Example

As there is only a very limited and incomplete documentation so far, here is an example of how to use the package to estimate treatment effects

library(CausalStump)

#simualtion as in Hill (2011) and Hill & Su (2013)
set.seed(1231)
n=120
Z = rbinom(n, 1, 0.3)
X1 = rnorm(sum(Z), mean = 40, sd = 10)
X0 = rnorm(n-sum(Z), mean = 20, sd = 10)
X0[X0<0] = 0.01
X = data.frame(matrix(NaN,n,1))
X[Z==1,] = X1; X[Z==0,] = X0
mysort = sort(X[,1],index.return=TRUE)

y0_true = as.matrix(72 + 3 * sqrt(X))
y1_true = as.matrix(90 + exp(0.06 * X))
y0_true[is.nan(y0_true)] = 60
y0_true[y0_true<60] = 60; y1_true[y1_true<60] = 60
y0_true[y0_true>120] = 120; y1_true[y1_true>120] = 120

#add observation noise (this is different to Hill's example but preserves the additive normal noise assumption)
Y0 = rnorm(n, mean = y0_true, sd = 1)
Y1 = rnorm(n, mean = y1_true, sd = 1)
Y = Y0*(1-Z) + Y1*Z 

#parameter learning of Gaussian process (prior = FALSE), student-t process (prior = TRUE)
mycs = CausalStump(Y,X,Z,prior=FALSE)

#predict response surfaces
mypred0 = predict(mycs,z=0)
mypred1 = predict(mycs,z=1)

#plot surface fit
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
plot(X[,1],mypred1$map,ylim = c(70,120),ylab="Y",xlab="X")
points(X[,1],mypred0$map)
points(X[,1],Y,col=2,pch=20)
lines(mysort$x,y1_true[mysort$ix]); lines(mysort$x,y0_true[mysort$ix])
legend("topleft",c("true","estimates","osbervations"),pch=c(NA,1,20),lty=c(1,NA,NA),col=c(1,1,2) )

#predict treatment effect of training sample (GP: exact, TP: sampling)
mytreat = treatment(mycs)

# the PEHE metric is used as in Hill (2011):
PEHE = sqrt(mean( (y1_true-y0_true - mytreat$map)^2)); PEHE

mazphilip/CausalStumps documentation built on May 12, 2019, 7:22 p.m.