calculate_win_probability: Compute win probability

In mrcaseb/nflfastR: Functions to Efficiently Access NFL Play by Play Data

Compute win probability

Description

for provided plays. Returns the data with probabilities of winning the game. The following columns must be present: receive_h2_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise), home_team, posteam, half_seconds_remaining, game_seconds_remaining, spread_line (how many points home team was favored by), down, ydstogo, yardline_100, posteam_timeouts_remaining, defteam_timeouts_remaining

Usage

calculate_win_probability(pbp_data)

Arguments

pbp_data

Play-by-play dataset to estimate win probability for.

Details

Computes win probability for provided plays. Returns the data with spread and non-spread-adjusted win probabilities. The following columns must be present:

• receive_2h_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise)

• score_differential

• home_team

• posteam

• half_seconds_remaining

• game_seconds_remaining

• spread_line (how many points home team was favored by)

• down

• ydstogo

• yardline_100

• posteam_timeouts_remaining

• defteam_timeouts_remaining

Value

The original pbp_data with the following columns appended to it:

wp

win probability.

vegas_wp

win probability taking into account pre-game spread.

Examples

try({# to avoid CRAN test problems
library(dplyr)
data <- tibble::tibble(
"receive_2h_ko" = 0,
"home_team" = "SEA",
"posteam" = "SEA",
"score_differential" = 0,
"half_seconds_remaining" = 1800,
"game_seconds_remaining" = 3600,
"spread_line" = c(1, 3, 4, 7, 14),
"down" = 1,
"ydstogo" = 10,
"yardline_100" = 75,
"posteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3,
"defteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3
)

nflfastR::calculate_win_probability(data) |>
  dplyr::select(spread_line, wp, vegas_wp)
})

mrcaseb/nflfastR documentation built on April 14, 2025, 12:14 a.m.