expg_from_probabilities: Estimate the expected goals from win-draw-lose probabilities.

In opisthokonta/goalmodel: Prediction Models For Goals Scored

Estimate the expected goals from win-draw-lose probabilities.

Description

This function converts outcome probabilities into expected goals, assuming an underlying Poisson distribution, or a Dixon-Coles-Poisson distribution with known dependence paramater rho.

Usage

expg_from_probabilities(probabilities, rho = 0, uprx = 75)

Arguments

probabilities	A 3-column matrix of win-draw-lose probabilities.
rho	numeric. Value for the Dixon-Coles adjustment parameter. Default is 0, which is the same as no adjustment.
uprx	numeric. The upper limit for evaluating the poisson distribution.

Value

A list with two elements. The first, expg, is a two-column matrix of expected goals. The second, sq_error, is a numeric vector indicating the how well the expected goals matches the probabilities using the poisson distribution.

opisthokonta/goalmodel documentation built on April 3, 2024, 1:32 a.m.