docs/TTIP/TTIP.md

In paul4forest/GFPMoutput: This program reads output simulation of the Global Forest Product Model (GFPM).

Explore TTIP dataset

Load a dataset containing GFPM scenarios

library(plyr)
library(xtable)
library(ggplot2)
load("enddata/GFPM_Output_TTIP_with_sensitivity.RDATA")

Sensitivity analysis

Plot scenarios changes

product = "Sawnwood"
element = "Demand"
aggregates = subset(allScenarios$aggregates, Scenario != "LowTTIP")
dtf = subset(aggregates, Product == product)


p = ggplot(data = subset(dtf, Element == element)) + aes(x = Period, y = Volume, 
    colour = GFPM_REG, linetype = Scenario) + geom_line() + # geom_point(aes(shape=Scenario)) + geom_point(data = subset(dtf,Element ==
# element&Scenario=='HighTTIP'), shape=15, size=4) +
geom_point(data = subset(dtf, Element == element & Scenario == "HighTTIP"), 
    aes(shape = Scenario), size = 4) + ggtitle(paste(product, element)) + theme(legend.position = "bottom")
print(p)

Make a similar graph for US - EU28 - Rest of the world

Comparison with Felbermayr 2013

Felbermayr 2013 reports a simulation of US and Germany's export values by 2025 for 3 forest related sectors: "forestry", "wood products" and "paper".

What are the export products?

unique(allScenarios$entity$Product[allScenarios$entity$Element == "Export"])

##  [1] "Fuelwood"   "IndRound"   "Sawnwood"   "Plywood"    "ParticleB" 
##  [6] "FiberB"     "MechPlp"    "ChemPlp"    "OthFbrPlp"  "WastePaper"
## [11] "Newsprint"  "PWPaper"    "OthPaper"

We will aggregate the products as such: Forestry : IndRound, Wood Products : "Fuelwood" "Sawnwood" "Plywood" "ParticleB" "FiberB" * Paper Products : "MechPlp" "ChemPlp" "OthFbrPlp" "WastePaper" "Newsprint" "PWPaper" "OthPaper"

US and Germany's exports in forest products in 2025 (period 4 in our simulation). We are looking at percentage changes in volume between the base and the high scenarios.

USDEexp = subset(allScenarios$entity, Country %in% c("United States of America", 
    "Germany") & Element == "Export" & Period == 4 & Scenario %in% c("Base", 
    "High"), select = c(Scenario, Period, Product, Country, Volume))
USDEexp = reshape(USDEexp, idvar = c("Period", "Product", "Country"), timevar = "Scenario", 
    times = c("Base", "High"), direction = "wide")
USDEexp = transform(USDEexp, expchange = round((Volume.High - Volume.Base)/Volume.Base * 
    100, 2))

## Error: object 'Volume.High' not found

USDEexp = reshape(subset(USDEexp, select = -c(Volume.Base, Volume.High)), idvar = c("Period", 
    "Product"), timevar = "Country", direction = "wide")

## Error: object 'Volume.High' not found

names(USDEexp) = c("Period", "Product", "US exports %", "Germany exports %")
print(xtable(USDEexp, caption = "Percentage change in exports between the \n             base and high scenarios on period 4 (2015)"), 
    type = "html", include.rownames = FALSE)

Percentage change in exports between the base and high scenarios on period 4 (2015) Period Product US exports % Germany exports % 4 Fuelwood United States of America 162.90 4 Fuelwood Germany 70.30 4 IndRound United States of America 22111.40 4 IndRound Germany 3833.60 4 Sawnwood United States of America 2022.30 4 Sawnwood Germany 14754.60 4 Plywood United States of America 278.20 4 Plywood Germany 187.00 4 ParticleB Germany 4423.60 4 ParticleB United States of America 169.10 4 FiberB United States of America 421.80 4 FiberB Germany 3903.40 4 MechPlp United States of America 317.40 4 MechPlp Germany 7.50 4 ChemPlp United States of America 9125.30 4 ChemPlp Germany 464.80 4 OthFbrPlp United States of America 173.10 4 OthFbrPlp Germany 87.40 4 WastePaper United States of America 32176.40 4 WastePaper Germany 1604.30 4 Newsprint United States of America 332.40 4 Newsprint Germany 377.40 4 PWPaper Germany 8430.70 4 PWPaper United States of America 1005.80 4 OthPaper United States of America 5471.30 4 OthPaper Germany 5925.70

USDEexp$ProductAgg[USDEexp$Product %in% c("Fuelwood", "Sawnwood", "Plywood", 
    "ParticleB", "FiberB")] = "Wood Products"
USDEexp$ProductAgg[USDEexp$Product == "IndRound"] = "Forestry"
# USDEexp$ProductAgg[USDEexp$Product %in% c('MechPlp', 'ChemPlp',
# 'OthFbrPlp', 'WastePaper', 'Newsprint', 'PWPaper', 'OthPaper') = 'Paper
# Products'

paul4forest/GFPMoutput documentation built on May 24, 2019, 8:25 p.m.