get_log_scores_via_direct_simulation: Get log scores and full predictive distributions for each...

Description Usage Arguments Value

View source: R/kde-utils.R

Description

for a given season using a predictive method that works by directly simulating predictive distributions of each target. Results are stored in a data frame, saved in a .rds file with a name like "model_name-region-season-loso-predictions.rds" Results have columns indicating the analysis time season and season week, model name, log scores for each prediction target, the "log score" used in the competition (adding probabilities from adjacent bins) for each prediction target, as well as the log of the probability assigned to each bin.

Usage

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get_log_scores_via_direct_simulation(analysis_time_season,
  first_analysis_time_season_week = 10, last_analysis_time_season_week = 41,
  region, prediction_target_var, incidence_bins, incidence_bin_names, n_sims,
  model_name, fits_path, prediction_save_path)

Arguments

analysis_time_season

character vector of length 1 specifying the season to obtain predictions for, in the format "2000/2001"

first_analysis_time_season_week

integer specifying the first week of the season in which to make predictions, using all data up to and including that week to make predictions for each following week in the season

last_analysis_time_season_week

integer specifying the last week of the season in which to make predictions, using all data up to and including that week to make predictions for each following week in the season

region

string specifying the region to use, in the format "X" or "Region k" where k in 1, ..., 10

prediction_target_var

string specifying the name of the variable in data for which we want to make predictions

incidence_bins

a data frame with variables lower and upper defining lower and upper endpoints to use in binning incidence

incidence_bin_names

a character vector with a name for each incidence bin

n_sims

integer number of samples to simulate

model_name

name of model, stored in the results data frame

fits_path

path to directory where fitted models are stored

prediction_save_path

path to directory where results will be saved

Value

none


reichlab/2017-2018-cdc-flu-contest documentation built on May 15, 2018, 9:32 p.m.