Description Usage Format Details Source
VDH testing and positive case fraction reports aggregated to weekly resolution and adjusted for overdispersion.
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Data frame with 10 columns
VDH health district.
Week number
Date of the last day of the week with recorded measurements.
Number of reported tests for the week.
Number of reported cases for the week.
Variance in the daily positive test fraction.
Number of days reported in the week.
Effective number of samples (see details).
Effective number of positive samples.
Test counts and reports are aggregated by week, with weeks running Monday through Sunday (they are defined this way so that a Monday morning update has data for a full week). The date assigned is the date of the last day (Sunday) of the week. The positive test fraction is calculated as the number of positive tests for the week divided by the total number of tests for the week.
To adjust for overdispersion we also calculate the daily positive test fraction and its variance over the 7 days in the week. The effective number of samples is calculated as p*(1-p)/sig2, where p is the weekly positive test fraction. Loosely speaking, what we're doing here is assuming that the sample prevalence is constant over a week and taking the variance of the daily measurements as an estimate of the variance in the measurement procedure. Then we set the effective number of tests such that the variance of the posterior PDF of the p inferred from those observations will be equal to the observed variance. From this, the effective number of positive results is estimated by multiplying neff by fpos. Both neff and nposeff are rounded to the nearest integer (meaning that nposeff/neff may not be precisely equal fpos).
Finally, note that this procedure is performed only when the number of observations for the week is greater than 32 and there are at least 4 days of observations in the week. Weeks that don't meet these standards in a district are left unadjusted. This prevents us from getting crazy results for partial weeks or weeks with just a few observations. We also force neff <= ntest (so far only one week in one district has required adjustment in this respect).
Virginia Department of Health https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/
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