total_points_chances: Model estimates of Total points distribution for two-teams

In shill1729/sportsbets: Sports betting modeling and analysis

Model estimates of Total points distribution for two-teams

Description

Compute via Monte-Carlo probabilities of being over or under a given line.

Usage

total_points_chances(line, means, points, method = "cf", n = 10^3)

Arguments

line	the line
means	vector of the team-wise sum of the mean number of goals of each type
points	the coefficients of points earned per goal, i.e. in basketball (2,3,1) (see details for orders)
method	"cf" or "mc"
n	number of variates to use in Monte-Carlo estimation.

Details

We model the point process of a football team by a linear combination of Poisson RVs, where the coefficients are the points earned for each type of goal. Since the data we use for the mean number of touchdowns includes all touchdowns not just ones that have no conversion, the coefficients for the the conversion points will be 1 and 2 rather than 7 and 8. I am not a football expert, so contact me if you have better ideas.

Value

data.frame of over, under, and push chances.

shill1729/sportsbets documentation built on Dec. 27, 2022, 10:53 p.m.