README.md

In yonicd/cookr: Realtime Tracker of US Congressional Elections 2018

cookr

The goal of cookr is to track in real time the results of the 2018 US congressional election by district using a live google spreatsheet populated by Cook political report, and add historical context of reported results using Ballotpedia.

The package locates which districts are still active and searches for adjacent districts to get their restults too, using this geojson file.

In the package there is a plotting function to vizualize the time depedent results. To create an output like this

Sticking a pin in this is to have data to model in the future expected voter turnout with higher frequency data.

Installation

You can install cookr from github with:

# install.packages("remotes")
remotes::install_github("yonicd/cookr")

Usage

Load Library

library(cookr)

Fetching The Spreadsheet

cook_html <- httr::GET('https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/htmlview?sle=true#gid=326900537')

cook_data <- cook_html%>%
  cookr::fetch_spreadsheet()

Peek at Data

cook_data%>%
  dplyr::glimpse()
#> Observations: 435
#> Variables: 18
#> $ `1`                   <int> 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15...
#> $ State                 <chr> "Alabama", "Alabama", "Alabama", "Alabam...
#> $ district              <chr> "1", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "AL",...
#> $ `2018 Cook PVI Score` <chr> "R+15", "R+16", "R+16", "R+30", "R+18", ...
#> $ `2018 Winner`         <chr> "Bradley Byrne", "Martha Roby", "Mike Ro...
#> $ Party                 <chr> "R", "R", "R", "R", "R", "R", "D", "R", ...
#> $ `Dem Votes`           <chr> "88,365", "86,581", "83,748", "46,370", ...
#> $ `GOP Votes`           <chr> "152,308", "138,582", "147,481", "183,95...
#> $ `Other Votes`         <chr> "157", "419", "149", "222", "221", "137"...
#> $ `Dem %`               <chr> "36.7%", "38.4%", "36.2%", "20.1%", "38....
#> $ `GOP %`               <chr> "63.2%", "61.4%", "63.7%", "79.8%", "61....
#> $ `Other %`             <chr> "0.1%", "0.2%", "0.1%", "0.1%", "0.1%", ...
#> $ `Dem Margin`          <chr> "-26.6%", "-23.1%", "-27.5%", "-59.7%", ...
#> $ `2016 Clinton Margin` <chr> "-29.2%", "-31.7%", "-33.0%", "-62.5%", ...
#> $ `Swing vs. 2016 Prez` <chr> "2.6%", "8.6%", "5.5%", "2.8%", "10.7%",...
#> $ `Raw Votes vs. 2016`  <chr> "78.8%", "78.4%", "79.4%", "78.7%", "82....
#> $ `Final?`              <chr> "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ...
#> $ state_district        <chr> "Alabama_1", "Alabama_2", "Alabama_3", "...

Filter to open districts

open_districts <- cook_data%>%
  cookr::cook_open()

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | | :--------- | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :--- | | California | 21 | 48997 | 51175 | -2178 | 100172 | open | | Georgia | 7 | 140011 | 140430 | -419 | 280441 | open | | Utah | 4 | 128587 | 129006 | -419 | 257593 | open |

Find the adjacent districts

adjacent_districts <- open_districts%>%
  cookr::cook_adjacent()

Combine Data

districts <- dplyr::bind_rows(open_districts,adjacent_districts)

$California_21

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | | :--------- | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :------- | | California | 21 | 48997 | 51175 | -2178 | 100172 | open | | California | 16 | 73352 | 56543 | 16809 | 129895 | adjacent | | California | 20 | 156467 | 0 | 156467 | 156467 | adjacent | | California | 22 | 92462 | 106240 | -13778 | 198702 | adjacent | | California | 23 | 65717 | 120687 | -54970 | 186404 | adjacent | | California | 24 | 154575 | 111870 | 42705 | 266445 | adjacent |

$Georgia_7

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | | :------ | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :------- | | Georgia | 7 | 140011 | 140430 | -419 | 280441 | open | | Georgia | 4 | 227706 | 61092 | 166614 | 288798 | adjacent | | Georgia | 6 | 160134 | 156874 | 3260 | 317008 | adjacent | | Georgia | 9 | 57912 | 224661 | -166749 | 282573 | adjacent | | Georgia | 10 | 112325 | 190389 | -78064 | 302714 | adjacent | | Georgia | 11 | 118650 | 191885 | -73235 | 310535 | adjacent |

$Utah_4

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | | :---- | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :------- | | Utah | 4 | 128587 | 129006 | -419 | 257593 | open | | Utah | 2 | 100285 | 147556 | -47271 | 247841 | adjacent | | Utah | 3 | 65456 | 164755 | -99299 | 230211 | adjacent |

Fetch Historical Results of the Districts From Ballotpedia

cook_history <- districts%>%
  cook_ballotpedia()

Slack is defined as the historical reported votes minus the reported votes in 2018 for each election year. The 5th,50th and 95th percentiles of this distribution is shown in the table. This measurement gives a plausible range of votes remaining to count in the open districts.

$California_21

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | slack_q05 | slack_q50 | slack_q95 | | :--------- | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :------- | ----------: | ---------: | ---------: | | California | 21 | 48997 | 51175 | -2178 | 100172 | open | 3193.90 | 59134.0 | 104960.40 | | California | 16 | 73352 | 56543 | 16809 | 129895 | adjacent | -27777.10 | 21771.5 | 60452.10 | | California | 20 | 156467 | 0 | 156467 | 156467 | adjacent | -86474.50 | -41496.5 | 84875.15 | | California | 22 | 92462 | 106240 | -13778 | 198702 | adjacent | -45247.05 | 10494.0 | 53024.40 | | California | 23 | 65717 | 120687 | -54970 | 186404 | adjacent | -35258.85 | 10081.0 | 60514.85 | | California | 24 | 154575 | 111870 | 42705 | 266445 | adjacent | -147530.50 | -77352.5 | 32829.15 |

$Georgia_7

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | slack_q05 | slack_q50 | slack_q95 | | :------ | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :------- | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | | Georgia | 7 | 140011 | 140430 | -419 | 280441 | open | -105913.8 | -46202 | 39847.8 | | Georgia | 4 | 227706 | 61092 | 166614 | 288798 | adjacent | -142821.2 | -64104 | -793.8 | | Georgia | 6 | 160134 | 156874 | 3260 | 317008 | adjacent | -117934.4 | -49389 | 24177.0 | | Georgia | 9 | 57912 | 224661 | -166749 | 282573 | adjacent | -114103.2 | -39042 | -3222.6 | | Georgia | 10 | 112325 | 190389 | -78064 | 302714 | adjacent | -122217.2 | -97747 | -25264.4 |

$Utah_4

| State | district | Dem Votes | GOP Votes | Dem Margin | total | type | slack_q05 | slack_q50 | slack_q95 | | :---- | :------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | -----: | :------- | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | | Utah | 4 | 128587 | 129006 | -419 | 257593 | open | -100614.1 | -12316 | 14046.8 | | Utah | 2 | 100285 | 147556 | -47271 | 247841 | adjacent | -70559.2 | 4438 | 97941.2 | | Utah | 3 | 65456 | 164755 | -99299 | 230211 | adjacent | -83373.8 | 7137 | 54999.6 |

Plotting

p <- cook_history%>%
  cook_plot()
#> Warning: Using alpha for a discrete variable is not advised.
#> Warning: Using size for a discrete variable is not advised.

p

Saving

ggplot2::ggsave(p,filename = sprintf('plots/cook_%s.png',strftime(Sys.Date(),format = '%Y_%m_%d')))

saveRDS(cook_html,file = sprintf('src_data/cook_spreadsheet_%s.rds',strftime(Sys.Date(),format = '%Y_%m_%d')))
saveRDS(cook_history,file = sprintf('src_data/cook_history_%s.rds',strftime(Sys.Date(),format = '%Y_%m_%d')))

yonicd/cookr documentation built on May 23, 2019, 8:21 p.m.