InsurgencyPredictions: Sample data Insurgency Predictions

Description Usage Format Details References Examples

Description

This includes the data for the predictions of insurgencies in 29 countries for 2010.

Usage

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Format

An object of class matrix (inherits from array) with 696 rows and 4 columns.

An object of class matrix (inherits from array) with 348 rows and 4 columns.

Details

The predictions included in the dataset are:

More detail about each model can be found in Mongomery et al. (2012)

References

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian M. Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward. (2012). Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging. Political Analysis. 20: 271-291.

Examples

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## Not run: 
data(calibrationSample)
data(testSample)

this.ForecastData <- makeForecastData(.predCalibration=calibrationSample[,c("LMER", "SAE", "GLM")],
.outcomeCalibration=calibrationSample[,"Insurgency"],.predTest=testSample[,c("LMER", "SAE", "GLM")],
.outcomeTest=testSample[,"Insurgency"], .modelNames=c("LMER", "SAE", "GLM"))
initW <- rep(1/3,3)

this.ensemble.em <- calibrateEnsemble(this.ForecastData, model="logit", tol=0.001)

this.ensemble.gibbs <- calibrateEnsemble(this.ForecastData, model="logit", method = "gibbs")

## End(Not run)

EBMAforecast documentation built on Oct. 29, 2020, 1:07 a.m.