illustrate_RPS: Illustration of the Ranked Probability Score
In HuraultMisc: Guillem Hurault Functions' Library

Description Usage Arguments Details Value Examples

Illustration of the RPS in the case of forecasts for a discrete "Severity" score, ranging from 0 to 10. The forecast follow a (truncated between 0 and 10) Gaussian distribution, which is discretised to the nearest integer for RPS calculation.

1	illustrate_RPS(mu = 5, sigma = 1, observed = 6)

`mu`	Mean of the Gaussian forecast distribution.
`sigma`	Standard deviation of the Gaussian forecast distribution.
`observed`	Observed outcome.

The RPS is the mean square error between the cumulative outcome and cumulative forecast distribution (shaded are square). The Ranked Probability Skill Score compares the RPS to a reference RPS (RPS0), RPSS = 1 - RPS / RPS0. It can be interpreted as a normalised distance to a reference forecast: RPSS = 0 means that the forecasts are not better than the reference and RPSS = 1 corresponds to perfect forecasts.

Ggplot