MetaculR_brier: Calculate Brier statistics on MetaculR_questions object

In MetaculR: Analyze Metaculus Predictions and Questions

Calculate Brier statistics on MetaculR_questions object

Description

Calculate Brier statistics on MetaculR_questions object

Usage

MetaculR_brier(MetaculR_questions, me = TRUE, thresholds = seq(0, 1, 0.1))

Arguments

MetaculR_questions	A MetaculR_questions object
me	Show my scores alongside Metaculus scores
thresholds	Thresholds to bin questions

Value

A list of Brier statistics for you and Metaculus.

brier_me, brier_Metaculus, brier_community
baseline.tf	Logical indicator of whether climatology was provided.
bs	Brier score
bs.baseline	Brier Score for climatology
ss	Skill score
bs.reliability	Reliability portion of Brier score.
bs.resolution	Resolution component of Brier score.
bs.uncert	Uncertainty component of Brier score.
y.i	Forecast bins – described as the center value of the bins.
obar.i	Observation bins – described as the center value of the bins.
prob.y	Proportion of time using each forecast.
obar	Forecast based on climatology or average sample observations.
thresholds	The thresholds for the forecast bins.
check	Reliability - resolution + uncertainty should equal brier score.
Other
ss_me_Metaculus, ss_me_community, ss_Metaculus_community	Skill score, me vs. Metaculus, etc.
count_questions	Number of total questions included.
brier_df: Used for plotting Brier score statistics
ID	Predictor.
name	Name of value, see above.
value	Value.
brier_bins_df: Used for plotting histogram and calibration plots.
ID	Predictor.
centers	y.i, see above.
freqs	prob.y, see above.
obars	obar.i, see above.
ideal	Ideal calibration where centers equals obars.
ci_low	Low end of 95% confidence interval for obar.i.
ci_high	High end of 95% confidence interval for obar.i.

Examples

## Not run: 
brier_me <-
  MetaculR_brier(
    questions_myPredictions_resolved)

## End(Not run)

MetaculR documentation built on April 26, 2022, 1:07 a.m.