msl.trend: Isolate trend component from mean sea level records.

In TrendSLR: Estimating Trend, Velocity and Acceleration from Sea Level Records

Description

Isolate trend component from mean sea level records.

Usage

msl.trend(object, station_name = " ", fillgaps = 1, iter = 10000,
  vlm = " ", plot = TRUE, wdir = " ", save_summary = "TRUE")

Arguments

object	an annual average mean sea level time series (refer ts) with water levels (in millimetres). Missing data and maximum missing data gap are limited to 15% and 5%, respectively, of the data record. Warning: If input data files do not conform to these pre-conditions, the analysis will be terminated. It should be further noted that the existence of long period oscillations in global mean sea level have been well recognised in the literature (eg. Chambers et al. (2012); Minobe (1999)). Therefore, in order to be effective for climate change and sea level research, time series input files are recommended to have a minimum length of at least 80 years in order that the package can identify and isloate such signals. Time series less than 80 years in length will be analysed but a warning will be displayed.
station_name	character string, providing the name of the data record. Note: This field can be left blank, however, it is retained for use in banner labelling of plotting and associated outputs.
fillgaps	numeric, provides 5 alternative gap filling procedures for missing data. The following options are available: 1: The default procedure is based on iterative gap filling using Singular Spectrum Analysis (refer igapfill); 2: linear interpolation (refer na.approx); 3: Cubic spline interpolation (refer na.approx); 4: Stineman's interpolation (refer na.interpolation); and 5: Weighted moving average (refer na.ma). Note: Gap filled portions of the time series are denoted in red on the default screen plot. This is done specifically to provide ready visual observation to discern if the selected gap filling method provides an appropriate estimate within the gaps in keeping with the remainder of the historical record. Depending on the nature of the record and extent of gaps, some trial and error between alternatives might be necessary to optimise gap filling. This is best achieved via the gap.fillview function which permits visual screen checking of various gap-filling options prior to undertaking the full trend analysis.
iter	numeric, enables a user defined number of iterations for bootstrapping to determine error margins. The user range is [500 to 10000] where 10000 is the default setting. Warning: Although the default setting provides a more accurate basis for estimating error margins, the degree of iterations slows the analysis and can take several minutes to run.
vlm	numeric, enables a user defined quantum for vertical land motion in mm/year within the range [-20 to 20]. This rate is used to convert the rate of relative sea level rise to an estimate of geocentric sea level rise. Positive rates of vlm are associated with land uplift, while conversely negative rates of vlm are associated with subsidence. This can be left blank in which case only estimates of relative mean sea level will be determined.
plot	logical, if “TRUE” then the original time series is plotted to the screen along with the trend component and the result of gap filling (where necessary). 95% confidence intervals have also been applied. Default = “TRUE”.
wdir	character string, providing the name of the directory to send output files (e.g., “C:/myproject/”) when the save_summary argument is set to "TRUE". If this field is left blank the save_summary argument is switched off and a message will be sent to the console.
save_summary	logical, if “TRUE” the object$Summary portion of the returned value is exported direct to the defined directory (wdir) and saved as "detailed_summary_output.csv". Default = “FALSE”.

Details

This function deconstructs annual average time series data into a trend and associated velocities and accelerations, filling necessary internal structures to facilitate all other functions in this package. The trend is isloated using Singular Spectrum Analysis, in particular, aggregating components whose low frequency band [0 to 0.01] exceed a threshold contribution of 75%. Associated velocities and accelerations are determined through the fitting of a cubic smoothing spline to the trend with 1 degree of freedom per every 8 years of record length. The fixed settings built into this function are based on the detailed research and development summarised in Watson (2016a,b; 2018).

Value

An object of class “msl.trend” is returned with the following elements:

$Station.Name:

the name of the data record.

$Summary:

a summary data frame of the relevant attributes relating to the trend and the inputted annual average data set, including:

• $Year: input data;

• $MSL: input data;

• $Trend: mean sea level trend;

• $TrendSD: standard deviation of the determined mean sea level trend;

• $Vel: relative velocity (or first derivative) of mean sea level trend (mm/year);

• $VelSD: standard deviation of the velocity of the mean sea level trend;

• $Acc: acceleration (or second derivative) of mean sea level trend (mm/year/year);

• $AccSD: standard deviation of the acceleration of the mean sea level trend;

• $Resids: time series of uncorrelated residuals; and

• $FilledTS: gap-filled time series (where necessary).

• $VelGeo: geocentric velocity (or first derivative) of mean sea level trend (mm/year)(only where vertical land motion has been supplied).

$Relative.Velocity:

outputs the peak relative velocity and the year in which it occurred.

$Vertical.Land.Motion:

outputs the vertical land motion used to convert relative to geocentric velocity (user supplied input).

$Geocentric.Velocity:

outputs the peak geocentric velocity and the year in which it occurred (if vertical land motion supplied).

$Acceleration:

outputs the peak acceleration and the year in which it occurred.

$Record.Length:

outputs details of the start, end and length of the input data set.

$Fillgaps:

outputs the extent of missing data (years) in the original record and the gap filling method used (where necessary).

$Bootstrapping.Iterations:

outputs the number of iterations used to generate the respective standard deviations for error margins.

$Changepoints:

outputs the number and time at which changepoints in the variance of the uncorrelated residuals occur (if any). Where changepoints are identified, block bootstrapping procedures are used with residuals quarantined between changepoints.

References

Chambers, D.P., Merrifield, M.A., and Nerem, R.S., 2012. Is there a 60 year oscillation in global mean sea level? Geophysical Research Letters, 39(18).

Minobe, S., 1999. Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(7), pp.855-858.

Watson, P.J., 2016a. Identifying the best performing time series analytics for sea-level research. In: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Contributions to Statistics, pp. 261-278, ISBN 978-3-319-28725-6. Springer International Publishing.

Watson, P.J., 2016b. How to improve estimates of real-time acceleration in the mean sea level signal. In: Vila-Concejo, A., Bruce, E., Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 780-785. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

Watson, P.J., 2018. Improved Techniques to Estimate Mean Sea Level, Velocity and Acceleration from Long Ocean Water Level Time Series to Augment Sea Level (and Climate Change) Research. PhD Thesis, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

See Also

custom.trend, gap.fillview, check.decomp, s, ts, msl.fileplot, msl.screenplot, summary, Balt, na.approx, na.interpolation, na.ma.

Examples

data(Balt) # Baltimore mean sea level record
ts1 <- ts(Balt[2], start = Balt[1, 1]) # create time series input object
s <- msl.trend(ts1, fillgaps = 3, iter = 500, 'BALTIMORE, USA')

data(s)
str(s) # check structure of object
msl.screenplot(s) # check screen output

TrendSLR documentation built on Aug. 7, 2019, 9:03 a.m.