archBootTest | R Documentation |
Performs the bootstrap combined Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) errors in vector autoregressive (VAR) models of Catani and Ahlgren (2016).
The tests of Eklund and Teräsvirta (2007), as well as the Multivariate LM test for ARCH as described for example in Lütkepohl (2006, sect. 16.5), are also included if the arguments ET
respectively MARCH
are set to TRUE
. The bootstrap procedure for those are the same as in Catani and Ahlgren (2016).
archBootTest(fit, h = 2, B = 499, CA = TRUE, ET = TRUE, MARCH = TRUE,
dist = "norm", skT.param = c(0, 1, 0, 5), verbose = TRUE)
## S3 method for class 'archBootTest'
print(x, ...)
fit |
an object of class |
h |
the lag length of the alternative VAR(h) model for the errors. |
B |
the number of bootstrap simulations. |
CA |
if |
ET |
if |
MARCH |
if |
dist |
the error distribution. Either |
skT.param |
a vector of four parameters for the skew-t distribution in case |
verbose |
logical; if |
x |
Object with class attribute ‘archBootTest’. |
... |
further arguments passed to or from other methods. |
All tests for ARCH are based on Cholesky-standardised least squares (LS)
residuals from the K
-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model with p
lags (abstracting from deterministic terms):
\mathbf{y}_{t}=\mathbf{\Pi }_{1}\mathbf{y}_{t-1}+\cdots +\mathbf{\Pi }_{p}
\mathbf{y}_{t-p}+\mathbf{u}_{t},\quad \text{E}(\mathbf{u}_{t})=\mathbf{0}
,\quad \text{E}(\mathbf{u}_{t}\mathbf{u}_{t}^{\prime })=\mathbf{\Omega},\ \ \ \ t=1,\ldots ,N.
The LS residuals are
\widehat{\mathbf{u}}_{t}=\mathbf{y}_{t}-\widehat{\mathbf{\Pi }}_{1}\mathbf{y}
_{t-1}-\cdots -\widehat{\mathbf{\Pi }}_{p}\mathbf{y}_{t-p},
where \widehat{\mathbf{\Pi }}_{1},\ldots ,\widehat{\mathbf{\Pi }}_{p}
are
the LS estimates of the K\times K
parameter matrices \mathbf{\Pi }
_{1},\ldots ,\mathbf{\Pi }_{p}
. The multivariate LS residuals are
\widehat{\mathbf{U}}=(\widehat{\mathbf{u}}_{1},\ldots ,\widehat{\mathbf{u}}
_{K})
, which is an N\times K
matrix. The Cholesky-standardised LS
residuals are
\widetilde{\mathbf{w}}_{t}=(\mathbf{S}_{\widehat{\mathbf{U}}}^{-1})^{\prime }
\widehat{\mathbf{u}}_{t},
where \mathbf{S}_{\widehat{\mathbf{U}}}
is the Cholesky factor of N^{-1}
\widehat{\mathbf{U}}^{\prime }\widehat{\mathbf{U}}
, i.e. \mathbf{S}_{
\widehat{\mathbf{U}}}
is the (unique) upper triangular matrix such that
\widehat{\mathbf{\Omega }}=\mathbf{S}_{\widehat{\mathbf{U}}}^{\prime }
\mathbf{S}_{\widehat{\mathbf{U}}},\quad \widehat{\mathbf{\Omega }}
^{-1}=(N^{-1}\widehat{\mathbf{U}}^{\prime }\widehat{\mathbf{U}})^{-1}=
\mathbf{S}_{\widehat{\mathbf{U}}}^{-1}(\mathbf{S}_{\widehat{\mathbf{U}}
}^{-1})^{\prime }.
The LM test for ARCH of order h
(Engle 1982) in equation i
, i=1,\ldots
,K
, is a test of H_{0}:b_{1}=\cdots =b_{h}
against H_{1}:b_{j}\neq 0
for at least one j\in \{1,\ldots ,h\}
in the auxiliary regression
\widetilde{w}_{it}^{2}=b_{0}+b_{1}\widetilde{w}_{i,t-1}^{2}+\cdots +b_{h}
\widetilde{w}_{i,t-h}^{2}+e_{it}.
The LM statistic has the form
LM_{i}=(N-p)R_{i}^{2},
where R_{i}^{2}
is R^{2}
from the auxiliary regression for equation i
.
The combined LM statistic (Dufour et al. 2010, Catani and Ahlgren 2016) is given by
\widetilde{LM}=1-\min_{1\leq i\leq K}(p(LM_{i})),
where p(LM_{i})
is the p
-value of the LM_{i}
statistic, derived from
the asymptotic \chi ^{2}(h)
distibution. The test is only available as a
bootstrap test. The bootstrap p
-value is simulated using Bootstrap
Algorithm 1 of Catani and Ahlgren (2016) if the errors are normal,
w_{i1},\ldots ,w_{iT}\sim \text{N}(0,1),
and Bootstrap Algorithm 2 if the errors are skew-t
(by setting the function argument dist = "skT"
),
w_{i1},\ldots ,w_{iT}\sim \text{skT}(0,1;\lambda ,v),
where \lambda
is the skewness parameter and v
is the degrees-of-freedom
parameter of the skew-t
distribution. These parameters can be set with the skT.param
argument.
The multivariate LM test for ARCH of order h
is a generalisation of the
univariate test, and is based on the auxiliary regression
\text{vech}(\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t}\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t}^{\prime })=\mathbf{b}
_{0}+\mathbf{B}_{1} \text{vech}(\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t-1}\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t-1}^{\prime })
+\cdots+\mathbf{B}_{h} \text{vech}(\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t-h}\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t-h}^{\prime })
+\mathbf{e}_{t},
where \text{vech}
is the half-vectorisation operator. The null hypothesis is H_{0}:\mathbf{B
}_{1}=\cdots =\mathbf{B}_{h}=\mathbf{0}
against H_{1}:\mathbf{B}_{j}\neq
\mathbf{0\!}
for at least one j\in \{1,\ldots ,h\}.
The
multivariate LM statistic has the form
MLM=\frac{1}{2}(N-p)K(K+1)-(N-p)\text{tr}(\widehat{\mathbf{\Omega}}_{\text{vech}}\widehat{\mathbf{\Omega}}^{-1}),
where \widehat{\mathbf{\Omega }}_{\text{vech}}
is the estimator of the
error covariance matrix from the auxiliary regression and \widehat{\mathbf{
\Omega }}
=N^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^{N}\widetilde{\mathbf{u}}_{t}\widetilde{
\mathbf{u}}_{t}^{\prime }
is the estimator of the error covariance matrix
from the VAR model (see Lütkepohl 2006, sect. 16.5). The MLM
statistic
is asymptotically distributed as \chi ^{2}(K^{2}(K+1)^{2}h/4)
. The test is
available as an asymptotic test using the asymptotic \chi
^{2}(K^{2}(K+1)^{2}h/4)
distribution to derive the p
-value, and as a
bootstrap test. The bootstrap p
-value is simulated using Bootstrap
Algorithms 1 and 2 of Catani and Ahlgren (2016). The asymptotic validity of
the bootstrap multivariate LM test has not been established.
The Eklund and Teräsvirta (2007) LM test of constant error covariance
matrix assumes the alternative hypothesis is a constant conditional
correlation autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (CCC-ARCH) process
of order h
: \mathbf{H}_{t}=\mathbf{D}_{t}\mathbf{PD}_{t}
, where \mathbf{
D}_{t}=\text{diag}(h_{1t}^{1/2},\ldots ,h_{Kt}^{1/2})
is a diagonal matrix of conditional
standard deviations of the errors \{\mathbf{u}_{t}\}
and \mathbf{P}=(\rho
_{ij})
, i,j=1,\ldots ,K
, is a positive definite matrix of conditional
correlations. The conditional variance \mathbf{h}_{t}=(h_{1t},\ldots
,h_{Kt})^{\prime }
is assumed to follow a CCC-ARCH(h)
process:
\mathbf{h}_{t}=\mathbf{a}_{0}+\sum_{j=1}^{h}\mathbf{A}_{j}\boldsymbol{u}
_{t-j}^{(2)},
where \mathbf{a}_{0}=(a_{01},\ldots ,a_{0K})^{\prime }
is a K
-dimensional vector of positive constants, \mathbf{A}_{1},\ldots ,\mathbf{A}
_{h}
are K\times K
diagonal matrices and \boldsymbol{u}
_{t}^{(2)}=(u_{1t}^{2},\ldots ,u_{Kt}^{2})^{\prime }
.
The null hypothesis
is H_{0}:\text{diag}(\mathbf{A}_{1})=\cdots =\text{diag}(\mathbf{A}_{h})=\mathbf{0}
against H_{1}:
\text{diag}(\mathbf{A}_{j})\neq \mathbf{0\!}
for at least one j\in
\{1,\ldots ,h\}
. The LM statistic has the form
LM_{CCC}=(N-p)\mathbf{s}(\widehat{\boldsymbol{\theta }})^{\prime }\mathbf{I}(
\widehat{\boldsymbol{\theta }})^{-1}\mathbf{s}(\widehat{\boldsymbol{\theta }}
),
where \mathbf{s}(\widehat{\boldsymbol{\theta }})
and \mathbf{I}(\widehat{
\boldsymbol{\theta }})
are the score vector and information matrix,
respectively, estimated under the null hypothesis (see Eklund and Teräsvirta
2007 for details). The asymptotic distribution of the LM_{CCC}
statistic is \chi ^{2}(Kh)
. The test is available as an asymptotic test using
the asymptotic \chi ^{2}(Kh)
distribution to derive the p
-value, and as a
bootstrap test. The bootstrap p
-value is simulated using Bootstrap
Algorithms 1 and 2 of Catani and Ahlgren (2016). The asymptotic validity of
the bootstrap LM_{CCC}
test has not been established.
a list of class "ACtest"
.
fit |
the |
inputType |
the type of object of |
h |
the lag length h of the alternative VAR(h) model for the errors. |
B |
the number of bootstrap simulations. |
K |
the number of series/equations in the fitted VAR model. |
CA |
the |
ET |
the |
MARCH |
the |
dist |
the |
standardizedResi |
the Cholesky-standardized residuals. |
CA_LM |
the combined LM statistic of Catani and Ahlgren (2016), computed as 1 - min(P( |
CA_bootPV |
the bootstrap P. value of the combined LM test of Catani and Ahlgren (2016). |
CA_LMi |
the LM statistics of Catani and Ahlgren (2016) for each time series. |
CA_LMijStar |
an (N-p) x K matrix of the bootstrap LM statistics for each time series (columns) and bootstrap sample (rows), for the Catani and Ahlgren (2016) test. |
CA_uniBootPV |
a vector of length K with the univariate bootstrap P. values for each time series, for the Catani and Ahlgren (2016) test. |
ET_LM |
the LM statistic of the Eklund and Teräsvirta (2007) test. |
ET_PV |
the P.value of the Eklund and Teräsvirta (2007) LM test statistic. |
ET_bootPV |
the bootstrap P.value of the Eklund and Teräsvirta (2007) test. |
ET_LMStar |
the bootstrap LM test statistics for the Eklund and Teräsvirta (2007) test. |
MARCH_LM |
the LM statistic of the Multivariate LM test for ARCH. See e.g. Lütkepohl (2006, sect. 16.5). |
MARCH_PV |
the P.value of the MARCH LM test statistic. |
MARCH_bootPV |
the bootstrap P.value of the MARCH test. |
MARCH_LMStar |
the bootstrap LM test statistics for the MARCH test. |
description |
who ran the test and when. |
time |
computation time taken to run the test. |
call |
how the function |
Catani, P. and Ahlgren, N. (2016). Combined Lagrange multiplier test for ARCH in vector autoregressive models, Economics and Statistics, <doi:10.1016/j.ecosta.2016.10.006>.
Dufour, J.-M., Khalaf, L., and Beaulieu, M.-C. (2010). Multivariate residual-based finite-sample tests for serial dependence and arch effects with applications to asset pricing models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (2010) 263–285.
Eklund, B. and Teräsvirta, T. (2007). Testing constancy of the error covariance matrix in vector models, Journal of Econometrics, 140, 753-780.
Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation, Econometrica, 50, 987-1007.
Lütkepohl, H. (2006), New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer, New York.
VARfit
to estimate a VAR(p).
fit <- VARfit(y = VodafoneCDS, p = 3, const = TRUE, trend = FALSE)
test <- archBootTest(fit = fit, h = 5, B = 199, CA = TRUE, ET = TRUE, MARCH = TRUE, dist = "norm")
test
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