Routine to rank a set of given ensemble forecasts according to their "value"
two-dimensional array with ensemble forecasts; dim(fcst) = number of ensemble forecasts; dim(fcst) = number of ensemble members
This routine ranks a set of ensemble forecasts according to their "value". The higher the "value" of an ensemble forecasts, the higher the rank. The following principle is applied: Assume two ensembles A and B are to be ranked. Without loss of generality, we define A>B if the probability of a random ensemble member of A being larger than a random ensemble member of B exceeds 0.5. This probability is calculated by a 2AFC-like approach based on Eq. 8 of Mason and Weigel (2009). By pairwise comparison of all ensembles, the final ranking is obtained.
vector with the ranks of the ensemble forecasts
Andreas Weigel, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
S.J. Mason and A.P. Weigel, 2009. A generic verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331-349
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