elections_2018: FiveThirtyEight probabilities from the 2018 election cycle.

In ecap: Excess Certainty Adjusted Probability Estimate

Description

A dataset containing FiveThirtyEight's probability estimates for the 2018 US elections. The races covered seats in the House, Senate, and for Governor. They also used three different methods to compute these estimates. Classic, Deluxe, and Lite. All of these have been included. The probabilities can be viewed from the perspective of a Democrat winning or from the perspective Republican winning any given race. The final results of each race are also included.

Usage

elections_2018

Format

A data frame with 1518 rows and 1 variables:

cycle

the year the race took place

branch

what branch of the government the race was for

race

the specific position the election was for

forecastdate

date of forecast

version

type of prediction method FiveThirtyEight used

Democrat_WinProbability

probability of a democrat winning the race

Republican_WinProbability

probability of a republican winning the race

category

category

Democrat_Won

binary variable indicating if a democrat won or not

Republican_Won

binary variable indicating if a republican won or not

uncalled

binary variable indicating if the race was uncalled or not

Source

https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/forecast-review

ecap documentation built on July 23, 2020, 9:07 a.m.