thetaf: Theta method forecast In forecast: Forecasting Functions for Time Series and Linear Models

 thetaf R Documentation

Theta method forecast

Description

Returns forecasts and prediction intervals for a theta method forecast.

Usage

```thetaf(
y,
h = ifelse(frequency(y) > 1, 2 * frequency(y), 10),
level = c(80, 95),
fan = FALSE,
x = y
)
```

Arguments

 `y` a numeric vector or time series of class `ts` `h` Number of periods for forecasting `level` Confidence levels for prediction intervals. `fan` If TRUE, level is set to seq(51,99,by=3). This is suitable for fan plots. `x` Deprecated. Included for backwards compatibility.

Details

The theta method of Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos (2000) is equivalent to simple exponential smoothing with drift. This is demonstrated in Hyndman and Billah (2003).

The series is tested for seasonality using the test outlined in A&N. If deemed seasonal, the series is seasonally adjusted using a classical multiplicative decomposition before applying the theta method. The resulting forecasts are then reseasonalized.

Prediction intervals are computed using the underlying state space model.

More general theta methods are available in the `forecTheta` package.

Value

An object of class "`forecast`".

The function `summary` is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function `plot` produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals.

The generic accessor functions `fitted.values` and `residuals` extract useful features of the value returned by `rwf`.

An object of class `"forecast"` is a list containing at least the following elements:

 `model` A list containing information about the fitted model `method` The name of the forecasting method as a character string `mean` Point forecasts as a time series `lower` Lower limits for prediction intervals `upper` Upper limits for prediction intervals `level` The confidence values associated with the prediction intervals `x` The original time series (either `object` itself or the time series used to create the model stored as `object`). `residuals` Residuals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values. `fitted` Fitted values (one-step forecasts)

Rob J Hyndman

References

Assimakopoulos, V. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 16, 521-530.

Hyndman, R.J., and Billah, B. (2003) Unmasking the Theta method. International J. Forecasting, 19, 287-290.

`arima`, `meanf`, `rwf`, `ses`
```nile.fcast <- thetaf(Nile)