jubilee.forward_rtn: Internal utility to calculate annualized forward and backward...

In jubilee: Forecasting Long-Term Growth of the U.S. Stock Market and Business Cycles

Description

These two internal utilities are intended to be used to calculate the annualized forward and backward log-return on the given time series. It is really calculating the speed of change, aka log-return, expecting the input to be in logrithmic scale. The forward return is typically the response variable in a forecast. The backward return is often used as explanatory variable in a regression.

Usage

jubilee.forward_rtn(fraction, ts, fwd.rtn.duration, tol.frac = 1/12)

jubilee.backward_rtn(fraction, ts, bwd.rtn.duration, tol.frac = 1/12)

Arguments

fraction	numeric, the ending fraction of regression
ts	numeric, the time series data, typically in log-scale
fwd.rtn.duration	numeric, the forward-looking regression period
tol.frac	numeric, tolerance of missing data in the beginning of backward return, or the ending of the forward return, expressed as fraction. Default is 1/12, that is, one month.
bwd.rtn.duration	numeric, the backward-looking regression period

Value

numeric, the same length as fraction

Author(s)

Stephen H. Lihn

Examples

## Not run: 
  dtb <- jubilee.repo(online=FALSE)@ie
  dtb$fwd.logr.10 <- jubilee.forward_rtn(dtb$fraction, dtb$log.tri, 10)
  dtb$bwd.logr.10 <- jubilee.backward_rtn(dtb$fraction, dtb$log.tri, 10)
  head(subset(dtb, fraction >= 1990),1)$fwd.logr.10 # 1/1990+10y: 0.16745
  tail(subset(dtb, fraction <= 2000+1/12),1)$bwd.logr.10 # the same as above

## End(Not run)

jubilee documentation built on Jan. 24, 2020, 5:10 p.m.