phcfM is an R package for modelling anthropogenic
deforestation. It was initially developed to obtain REDD baseline
scenarios of deforestation for the "programme holistique de conservation
des forets a Madagascar" (from which the package is named after). It
includes two main functions: (i)
demography(), to model the
population growth with time using population census data and Gaussian
mixed linear regressions and (ii)
deforestation(), to model the
deforestation process using land-cover change data and Binary logistic
regressions with variable time-intervals between land-cover
observations. Parameter inference is done in a hierarchical Bayesian
framework. Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) are coded in C++ using the
Scythe statistical library to maximize computation efficiency.
Ghislain Vieilledent <email@example.com>
Ghislain Vieilledent, Clovis Grinand and Romuald Vaudry. 2013. Forecasting deforestation and carbon emissions in tropical developing countries facing demographic expansion: a case study in Madagascar. Ecology and Evolution. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.550
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