Reconstruction of Past Populations with Uncertainty
popReconstruct is a package for reconstructing populations of the recent past. It simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, and incorporates measurement error. Informative priors are required for vital rates, migration rates, population counts at baseline, and their respective measurement error variances. Inference is based on the joint posterior probability distribution which yields fully probabilistic interval estimates. A sample from this distribution is drawn using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.
See the vignette burkina-faso-females for a detailed illustration.
Mark C. Wheldon
Maintainer: Hana Sevcikova firstname.lastname@example.org
Wheldon, M. C., Raftery, A. E., Clark, S. J. and Gerland, P. (2011) Estimating Demographic Parameters with Uncertainty. Working Paper No. 108, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle. http://www.csss.washington.edu/Papers/wp108.pdf.