popReconstruct is a package for reconstructing populations of the recent past. It simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, and incorporates measurement error. Informative priors are required for vital rates, migration rates, population counts at baseline, and their respective measurement error variances. Inference is based on the joint posterior probability distribution which yields fully probabilistic interval estimates. A sample from this distribution is drawn using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.
The DESCRIPTION file:
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See the vignette burkina-faso-females for a detailed illustration.
Mark C. Wheldon
Maintainer: "Mark C. Wheldon" <[email protected]>
Wheldon, M. C., Raftery, A. E., Clark, S. J. and Gerland, P. (2013). Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108:501, 96-110. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2012.737729.
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