vote_pres_primaries: Statewide Presidential Primaries Polling Data

In AmberlyDziesinski/ds: Files for Vanderbilt Data Science 1000

Description

Loads clean version of presidential primaries polling data into the environment. This dataset includes polling data and elections outcomes for presidential primaries in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

Usage

data(vote_pres_primaries)

Format

Data are structured as one observation per poll. Variables include:

year

Year of election

race

Type of election race

state

State abbreviation

pollster

Organization conducingthe poll and weighting

sample_size

The number of respondents who completed the poll

election date

The date of the primary election

winner

The name of the winning candidate

winner_pct

The percentage of respondents supporting the winning candidate

runnerup

The name of the runner up (second place) candidate

runnerup_pct

The percentage of respondents supporting the runner up (second place) candidate

moe

Reported margin of error for the surveys; calculated as the sample proportion of respondents supporting the Democratic candidate in unreported (commonly unreported for internet surveys)

poll_margin

Poll margin between candidates, calculated as (dem_poll-rep_poll)

poll_vote_margin

Difference between the poll margin and vote margin, calculated as ((dem_poll-rep_poll)-(dem_vote-rep_vote))

error_on_margin

Error on poll-vote margin, calculated as the absolute value of ((dem_poll-rep_poll)-(dem_vote-rep_vote))

vote_margin

Difference between Democrat and Republican vote, calculated as (dem_vote-rep_vote)

winner_projected

Indicator that the poll correctly predicted the winner: 1=yes, 0=no

Details

These data were cleaned for the purpose of Data Science 1000 in the following way: variables with substantial missing data were removed (for example, if a variable was not reported in most years), and the margin of error was calculated where unreported using the sample proportion of respondents supporting the winning candidate.

Source

The historical data comes from three sources. General election data (national presidential, statewide presidential, senate, and governor) prior to 2012 are from the National Council on Public Polls (http://www.ncpp.org/) website. National and Statewide presidential polls in 2016 are from the 2016 AAPOR Task Force on Pre-Election polls, as are the primary polls from 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. Data for the 2018 Midterm Elections was collected by a task force created in 2018 at the request of AAPOR Council President David Dutwin consisting of Evans Witt (PSRAI), Scott Clement (Washington Post) and Ariel Edwards-Levy (Huffington Post).

Examples

# Run descriptive statistics on the data:
#hist(moe)
#table(winner)
#mean(sample_size)

AmberlyDziesinski/ds documentation built on Dec. 17, 2021, 8:45 a.m.