In adibender/coalitions: Bayesian "Now-Cast" Estimation of Event Probabilities in Multi-Party Democracies

library(knitr)
opts_chunk$set(
  fig.align  = "center",
  fig.width  = 4,
  fig.height = 4,
  crop       = TRUE)

library(tidyr)
library(purrr)
library(dplyr)
library(coalitions)
library(ggplot2)
theme_set(theme_bw())

# load latest emnid data
temp <- scrape_wahlrecht() %>% slice(1) %>% collapse_parties()
temp %>% unnest("survey")

# draw 10k samples from posterior
set.seed(29072017)
draws <- map(temp$survey, draw_from_posterior, nsim=1e4, correction=0.01) %>%
    flatten_df()
draws_long <- gather(draws, party, percent, cdu:others) %>%
        group_by(party) %>%
        mutate(sim = row_number()) %>% ungroup()

ggplot(draws_long, aes(x=party, y=percent)) +
    geom_boxplot() +
    geom_hline(yintercept = 0.05, lty=2, col=2)

## chains
ggplot(draws_long, aes(x=sim, y=percent)) +
    geom_path() +
    geom_hline(yintercept = 0.05, lty=2, col=2) +
    facet_wrap(~party, nrow=2)

draws_long %>%
    group_by(party) %>%
    summarize(entryprob = sum(percent >= 0.05)/n())

adibender/coalitions documentation built on Aug. 22, 2022, 5:58 a.m.