Simulate tournaments in R
# devtools::install_github("beanumber/tourneyr")
library(tourneyr)
library(tidyverse)
nba <- best16_2016 %>%
filter(sport == "nba")
one_simulation(nba)
## # A tibble: 16 x 5
## seed theta finish num_games sport
## <int> <dbl> <dbl> <int> <chr>
## 1 1 1.2860679 4 2 nba
## 2 2 1.2551201 3 3 nba
## 3 3 1.2322665 1 5 nba
## 4 4 1.0483465 4 2 nba
## 5 5 0.7227860 2 4 nba
## 6 6 0.5454893 4 2 nba
## 7 7 0.5248155 4 2 nba
## 8 8 0.4429909 3 3 nba
## 9 9 0.4291082 5 1 nba
## 10 10 0.4176675 5 1 nba
## 11 11 0.3667088 5 1 nba
## 12 12 0.3315770 5 1 nba
## 13 13 0.2421223 5 1 nba
## 14 14 0.2179563 5 1 nba
## 15 15 0.1828562 5 1 nba
## 16 16 0.1058669 5 1 nba
one_simulation(nba, series_length = 7)
## # A tibble: 16 x 5
## seed theta finish num_games sport
## <int> <dbl> <dbl> <int> <chr>
## 1 1 1.2860679 4 2 nba
## 2 2 1.2551201 1 5 nba
## 3 3 1.2322665 3 3 nba
## 4 4 1.0483465 2 4 nba
## 5 5 0.7227860 4 2 nba
## 6 6 0.5454893 4 2 nba
## 7 7 0.5248155 4 2 nba
## 8 8 0.4429909 3 3 nba
## 9 9 0.4291082 5 1 nba
## 10 10 0.4176675 5 1 nba
## 11 11 0.3667088 5 1 nba
## 12 12 0.3315770 5 1 nba
## 13 13 0.2421223 5 1 nba
## 14 14 0.2179563 5 1 nba
## 15 15 0.1828562 5 1 nba
## 16 16 0.1058669 5 1 nba
one_simulation(nba, series_length = 999)
## # A tibble: 16 x 5
## seed theta finish num_games sport
## <int> <dbl> <dbl> <int> <chr>
## 1 1 1.2860679 1 5 nba
## 2 2 1.2551201 2 4 nba
## 3 3 1.2322665 3 3 nba
## 4 4 1.0483465 3 3 nba
## 5 5 0.7227860 4 2 nba
## 6 6 0.5454893 4 2 nba
## 7 7 0.5248155 4 2 nba
## 8 8 0.4429909 4 2 nba
## 9 9 0.4291082 5 1 nba
## 10 10 0.4176675 5 1 nba
## 11 11 0.3667088 5 1 nba
## 12 12 0.3315770 5 1 nba
## 13 13 0.2421223 5 1 nba
## 14 14 0.2179563 5 1 nba
## 15 15 0.1828562 5 1 nba
## 16 16 0.1058669 5 1 nba
res <- best16_2016 %>%
group_by(sport) %>%
do(many_simulations(., n = 100, series_length = 7))
res %>%
group_by(sport) %>%
summarize(cor(seed, finish))
## # A tibble: 4 x 2
## sport `cor(seed, finish)`
## <chr> <dbl>
## 1 mlb 0.3041540
## 2 nba 0.7815602
## 3 nfl 0.7195065
## 4 nhl 0.3246498
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