series_probability: Calculate the probability of winning a series

In beanumber/tourneyr: Simulate Tournaments

Description

Calculate the probability of winning a series

Usage

series_probability(theta1, theta2, alpha1, alpha2, alpha, series_length = 1,
  ...)

series_probability_df(data, series_length = 1, ...)

Arguments

theta1	value of theta
theta2	value of theta for other team
alpha1	HFA for team1
alpha2	HFA for team2
alpha	HFA for overall sport
series_length	number of games in the series
...	currently ignored
data	a data frame like bigfour_end

Examples

if (require(dplyr)) {

  # should be around 40%
  series_probability(spurs_bulls$mean_theta[1], spurs_bulls$mean_theta[2],
                     spurs_bulls$mean_alpha[1], spurs_bulls$mean_alpha[2],
                     spurs_bulls$alpha_sport[1], series_length = 1)
  long_run_prob(spurs_bulls, n = 10)

  series_probability(spurs_bulls$mean_theta[1], spurs_bulls$mean_theta[2],
                     spurs_bulls$mean_alpha[1], spurs_bulls$mean_alpha[2],
                     spurs_bulls$alpha_sport[1], series_length = 7)
  long_run_prob(spurs_bulls, n = 10, series_length = 7)

  # should be nearly certain
  series_probability(spurs_bulls$mean_theta[1], spurs_bulls$mean_theta[2],
                     spurs_bulls$mean_alpha[1], spurs_bulls$mean_alpha[2],
                     spurs_bulls$alpha_sport[1], series_length = 99)
  long_run_prob(spurs_bulls, n = 10, series_length = 99)
}

# Spurs at home, single game
if (require(dplyr)) {
  x <- spurs_bulls %>%
    rename(theta = mean_theta, alpha = mean_alpha) %>%
    arrange(desc(theta))

  series_probability_df(x, 1)
  series_probability_df(arrange(x, theta), 1)

  # Spurs at home, seven game series
  series_probability_df(x, 7)

  # Spurs at home, 99 game series
  series_probability_df(x, 99)

  # monotonic increase for Spurs
  sapply(seq(1, 15, by = 2), series_probability_df,
         data = x)

  # monotonic decrease for Bulls
  sapply(seq(1, 15, by = 2), series_probability_df,
         data = arrange(x, theta))
}

beanumber/tourneyr documentation built on May 27, 2019, 4:49 a.m.