inla.climate.tcr: Transient climate response estimation

In eirikmn/INLA.climate: Full Bayesian analysis of radiative forcing climate model

Transient climate response estimation

Description

Computes Bayesian inference about the transient climate response by Monte Carlo simulations generated by sampling from the posterior marginal distributions obtained by INLA.

Usage

inla.climate.tcr(result, Qco2, nsamples = 100000, seed = 1234, print.progress = FALSE,model = "fgn")

Arguments

result	An inla.climate or an inla object which can be accessed using results$inla.result, where results is the returned object from the inla.climate function.
Qco2	The slope of the forcing when assuming a CO2 doubling in the future.
nsamples	The number of Monte Carlo simulations used in obtaining transient climate response inference.
seed	Seed used for random number generator.
print.progress	Prints progression if TRUE.
model	The model used to describe stochastic forcing. For long memory responses the fractional Gaussian noise (model="fgn") and ARFIMA(0,d,0) (model="arfima") are supported. The first-order autoregressive model (model="ar1") is also supported.

Value

Returns a list of class inla.climate.tcr which contains the following objects:

TCR.mean	The mean value of the transient climate response simulations.
TCR.sd	The standard deviation of the transient climate response simulations.
TCR.quant0.025	The 2.5% quantile value of the transient climate response simulations.
TCR.quant0.5	The 50% quantile of the transient climate response simulations.
TCR.quant0.975	The 97.5% quantile of the transient climate response simulations.
samples	List containing the Monte Carlo simulations of the TCR and all hyperparameters.
time	The time spent doing the Monte Carlo simulations.

Author(s)

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen [e-mail]

References

Fredriksen, H.B., Rypdal, M. (2017) Long-Range Persistence in Global Surface Temperatures Explained by Linear Multibox Energy Balance Models. Journal of Climate 30 (18), 7157–7168.

See Also

inla.climate, inla.climate.mu

Examples

if(require("INLA",quietly=TRUE)){
  data(GISS_E2_R)
  result.climate <- inla.climate(data=GISS_E2_R$Temperature,forcing=GISS_E2_R$Forcing)
  result.tcr <- inla.climate.tcr(result.climate$inla.result,Qco2=3.8)
}

eirikmn/INLA.climate documentation built on Feb. 6, 2023, 11:41 a.m.